spin department #58

Towers of ilium should not be considered the final word on anything, especially on subjects like energy production. However, this blog does have ambitions as a tool for improvements in people's knowledge. So, I draw your attention to the graph above, published by an organization called the International Energy Agency, which makes a claim about how U.S. domestic liquid petroleum production is poised to increase substantially over the next two decades. It was part of a report issued recently that makes projections about future energy production patterns. Most people are familiar with the report because of recent news stories that have trumpeted how the U.S. will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as a petroleum producer.

According to sources that I trust more the IEA, this graph, and much of the information in that report, is bullshit. The U.S. is not on a path towards increased fossil fuel production at the rate or total volume implied by this graph. The U.S. will not become energy independent in fossil fuels--nor would doing so have any impact on prices we pay at the gas pump. Saudi Arabia has more oil buried under its soil than the U.S. This is a simple geological fact. More to the point, the production projections shown in this graph are an example of "bubblenomics"--and bear a striking resemblance to claims made by many idiots about the certainty of ever increasing home values.