I'm reading The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver right now and I can recommend it without reservation.
Along with Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande, I think we are in a good place in history when it comes to having the tools to make better decisions. The major obstacle is our primitive, messed-up primate brains and our frustrating inability to adapt to a world where information can be subjected to rigorous, probalisitic tests. I find myself making judgment errors on an hourly basis, even when I should know better. When I try to objectively confront these errors, I find myself retreating into stupidity.
Unfortunately, I'm in a profession where aesthetics and tradition are constantly in conflict with better ways of doing things. My roof overhangs should be broader, my foundations should be deeper, and I should really find a better window and door company. I should trust plumbers less and I should learn more about HVAC systems.
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