Predictions are not hard work--they are impossible. Acceptance of this fact defies human nature, since our brains have evolved to construct elaborate fantasies about future states. Hence, our obsession with design and constant efforts to improve design through elaborate strategies backed up by complex narratives grounded in nothing.
So far, not much that has happened this year has been predictable. The behavior of world leaders is in constant flux. The weather is uncooperative. The economy is regarded as strong by nearly all economists.
A time will come when food is so cheap that people will imagine peace and prosperity have arrived; but at that moment the earth will become a hotbed of disasters--sword, famine, and anarchy.
Even that won't be completely realized.
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