Predictions for 2018-Review and Criticism

predictions for 2018

Review/Responses are in RED

Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

Yes and not yet. So long Sears, Lowe's is in trouble. That some of the property will be turned into housing should happen, but it may not be a trend.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

AI development is impressive--witness Alpha Zero crushing all chess engines. Apple is fading, but that was an easy prediction.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

Yes.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

Kim is playing Trump like a fiddle. China is being patient.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

No. Housing market is strong, but is starting to feel impact of tariffs and interest rates.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

Slightly better, but stock brokers ended the year sad.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

The Khashoggi tragedy is still playing out. Watch out Caesar.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

Meh.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

Of course.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

Yes.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

Except for Nigeria.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

Still ongoing. Kushner is safe for now.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....

Yes and No.

bending the truth on predictions for 2018

The editorial staff at towers of ilium had a meeting about predictions made by the blog for the current year. They agreed on this: it's too soon to say.

The economy is doing better than expected. The word on the street is that their won't be a downturn until after the end of Trump's first term. Global momentum will be tempered by higher interest rates and higher oil prices, but so far there doesn't seem to be the silliness that preceded the last economic collapse.

And what about war? Those in progress will continue.

important reference-u.s. suburban development

Never mind the suburbs, here's the zoning pistols:

https://www.buildzoom.com/blog/pockets-of-dense-construction-in-a-dormant-suburban-interior

This extensive post by Issi Romen provides some good insights into the current trends of American urban land use. Although he outlines some solutions, he does not sound that optimistic. Towers of ilium agrees.

counter-reactionaries-brutalism

Heroic Brutalism has been compared to some of the architecture from the Victorian era, which was regarded as a style of excess. Contemporary preservationists are urging for a more sensitive treatment of Brutalist buildings and at least one line of argument is plausible: fashions change, tastes change, styles change--and sometimes everything comes round again. Since architecture is subject to criticism on the basis of function and durability, however, the ability to protect Brutalist monuments is more difficult.

Some very excessive buildings from the 19th century continue to be preserved and reused. Memorial Hall at Harvard is a notable example. It is an impressive pile of interpretative Gothic detailing. The plan is an overt frame of a cathedral. And like a cathedral, it serves a diverse (even for Harvard) congregation--particularly at mealtimes.

Herein lies a lesson for preservationists--the building has to work. And at some fundamental levels, Brutalist buildings did not work. The most notable Brutalist architects, working in the best spirit of experimental Modernism, sought to create unique geometric experiences that broke with millenia of building practices. A bit more reinforced concrete, a bit more height, a bit more cantilever were the ingredients of magazine worthy Brutalism.

The Victorian era, which was revolutionary, made it possible for Richardson to engage in his own experiments. His most successful projects were deeply restrained, but as Hitchcock noted, he was the last traditionalist. There are some successful knock-offs, like this:

But, the decorated splendor of the 19th century would give way to an age of glass and steel. Brutalism, ultimately, was a dead end. Good for photographers.

where the hell did the news go

Now that the blood has been cleaned up there's not much interest in the general media about the Florida pedestrian bridge collapse. There are some possible lessons from this absence of follow-up, and more importantly about the challenges associated with designing and building anything, anywhere, for any purpose.

-Complexity kills. Changes to complex things are necessary, but should be approached with caution

-Redundancy should not be forsaken for an assumption that better computers can solve all problems

-It takes more time than anyone appreciates

-Nothing will ever be perfect

the age of abandonment

The often overlooked ingredient of successful preservation of historic architecture is neglect. The fewer cycles of repair and replacement undertaken by the owners of a building the more authentic it is.

This house is a bit past its prime, but it is a good window into the past. Although its probable that only the chimney is original, the significant age of the windows, trim, and siding speaks to owners who respected history.

the age of loopholes

This double curved entry roof is an exceptional detail on an otherwise unexceptional house. Towers of ilium doubts that it is original. But, so what?

The recent fire at the Trump Tower in New York reveals something important about the evolution of building codes. At the time of its construction--1979--Fire Code regulations were fairly well advanced. However, residential occupancies in high rises were considered low risk, especially when compared to more public spaces like theaters and hospitals. Additionally, fire safety was still focused on the general robustness of the building structure, which was applied to skyscrapers regardless of use. We can imagine a young Donald Trump saying "Why the hell do we need to waste money on sprinklers?!" More significantly, if his design team was doing its job they would never have suggested that the client spend money on something that was not mandated by code.

So, we have one person dead, but the building is still standing. It is doubtful that the building owner will disrupt tenants and bring the sprinkler system in line with current code or best practices.