the road behind

The Covid-19 pandemic will hopefully cause a re-assessment of what is truly important. Towers of Ilium will refer to this, with optimism, as the Maslow Revolution. The modern state depends on the following critical activities and systems, roughly in order of importance:

-Industrial food production systems
-Transportation networks---primarily for food
-Fuel systems, including the electric grid
-Shelter (more on this later)
-Trash removal and other sanitation infrastructure
-Electronic communication networks
-Public education systems*
-Emergency Healthcare

Under normal circumstances, what percentage of the economy do all of those add up to?

With respect to the current recession and the ongoing impacts of the pandemic, what economic sectors are going to be well and truly fucked for the next several months or years? Here's a short list:

-Personal air travel--particularly for leisure, and also for business
-Dine-in Restaurants
-Hotels and other temporary lodgings---and nearly all support systems
-Elective healthcare---even if it's very important for survival
-Discretionary energy use associated with all of the above
-Architecture

and through darkness

The death peak for Massachusetts is predicted over the next two weeks. Stress on hospitals will build over the next few days and persist for 3 to 5 weeks.

How will architecture be different after this?

nothing that can be called news

Through a window brightly

-The recession has begun. Architects are beginning to feel the sting and mass layoffs and firm collapses are inevitable.

-The hammer blow of the virus will fall hardest on the state of Florida. The healthcare systems of Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville will be overwhelmed. The re-election prospects of DeSantis may be diminished if the body count gets too high. Social distancing measures cannot be implemented after the fact to prevent any of this.

-Boston is starting its climb up the death ladder. Deaths are less important than hospital overload, but media focus will be dominated by the personal stories. Also, access to facilities will be constrained.

-The Dow is doing some dead cat bounces.

Predictions 2020 Review

Well, things are not going well. This applies to both the predictions made by this blog in January and the human population of this planet.

A few notes and predictions about the Coronavirus disaster:

-It is not a case of mass hysteria and it is not an existential threat. Mortality rates from diseases were much worse in the general population for most of human history. However, people who point to this as a reason for not taking drastic measures should be loaded onto a time machine and taken back to any period in history where things were much worse.

-This will decimate Nursing Home populations in the U.S. We use that term literally.

-The failures of the Trump administration may be offset by combined responses of states and communities. This is an optimistic posture for this blog to take.

Predictions for 2020

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Architecture will be boring.

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

2019 Predictions Review Post

How did I do? 

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

Score: Mostly true. The outcome of the shutdown was to reveal the power that Pelosi and Schumer can muster. Towers of Iium completely missed predicting the Impeachment saga.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

Score: Very Wrong. Stock market gains were solid. My ability to call market moves has a terrible track record.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

Score: Very true. Not a very tough prediction.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

Score: Mostly not true.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: Meh--True but not relevant in the greater scheme of things. 

-Tesla will muddle through

Score: True---Tesla is doing fine. Towers of Ilium has mixed feelings about their status as a revolutionary company.

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: True

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Score: True--but not a very worthy prediction. Biden leads, but 2019 isn't relevant for 2020 political situation, despite the impeachment.

Predictions for 2019

Loyal readers can stop holding their breath. Here's a list of things I'll be wrong about--but I'm already working on ways to spin an explanation.

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

-Tesla will muddle through

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.