gone such a short time

Humans seem to process time in short intervals--life or death decisions are made in split seconds, we say stupid things without considering the consequences, we get impatient when things are late by a few minutes. Some blame the internet, but we created the products of linked computers to conform to our way of perceiving the world.

Architecture is offered as a flawed antidote to the super fast. The "build for all time" motto is carved on the ruins of the Egyptian empire. The value of the built environment can reasonably be measured in decades, occasionally centuries, and in rare circumstances, milenia. In light of this, making fast decisions in design should be treated with caution. A design decision that is not reviewed at least three times often turns out wrong. But, we cannot escape our nature, and decisions that are made instantly and arbitrarily often define the course of work. If these quick moves weren't made then nothing would ever get built.

This building no longer exists. It's removal was the result of much deliberation.

Predictions for 2017

The only way to make mistakes is by doing things, so here goes:


-The world economy will muddle along for most of the year. As potential impacts from Trump start to percolate through markets there will be signs of disruption towards the end of the year. China may have some minor crises, but will be managed. Russia will be stagnant. Europe will improve. Developing countries will improve slightly. Major drama will be reserved for 2018 (to be discussed in the towers of ilium Trump Predictions special edition)

-U.S. economy will start strong and then weaken as the year progresses.

-Oil prices will be volatile and end the year above $65 a barrel.

-Renewable energy will continue to grow globally, but will suffer setbacks in the U.S.

-U.S. housing starts will surge, but will be tempered by rising interest rates

-Fed will hike rates 3 times in 2017

-ISIL will lose Mosul, and Raqqa will be besieged but not fall.

-Middle East turmoil will be variable. Saudi Arabia will pull back some on its military adventures in Yemen and will seek more diplomacy with Iran. Bibi will continue to isolate Israel. Sisi will get weaker in Egypt.

-Boston real estate will continue to cool. Prices will not soften.

-Architecture will continue to improve sustainable design practices. There will be more conservative buildings coming online and on the boards.

-Nothing dramatic will happen at the MBTA.

2017 will be less exciting than 2016 (long drumroll on that one please.....)

paper tiger architecture

The efforts of the Boston Olympics organization were regarded with gentle skepticism by towers of ilium. That it was doomed was never in doubt. It failed to spark a serious dialogue about the state of Boston infrastructure. Perhaps we are all united by the hopelessness of the situation.

pre-planning the prediction market

2016 was a bad year for polling and the conventional wisdom. 2017 may be even worse. The prediction staff at towers of ilium has been doing more research than usual on what may happen in the year ahead. Topics worthy of predictions include the following:

-U.S. economy
-Energy prices
-Armed conflicts-ongoing
-Armed conflicts-potential
-Terrorism
-Architectural trends
-Real Estate trends-local
-Real Estate trends-national/international
-Transportation
-Donald Trump's presidency

This last topic will get special treatment because it requires a multi-year window of possible effects.

a sketch about economists (up there)

The Economist also had a very good article on their own headquarters building-which they are in the process of vacating after many years. Towers of ilium can only comment on a few items:

-Peter and Allison Smithson are given credit for inventing the Brutalist style with these structures.

-The author of the article has experience working in the building and was generally pleased with the design--except for the Plaza--modernist plazas are usually shit.

-Office towers pose considerable challenges for communication between groups. This can be a boon for some companies, but not for journalists.

many happy returns

The last time towers of ilium commented on Celebration, Florida, it was dismissive. A recent article in The Economist magazine on the community was thoughtful and frequently critical. This blog continues to remain dismissive. The town--if it can be called that--is simply another  upscale suburb located between a swamp and a highway. Some of its planning features still feel dumb, in particular the way garages empty onto back roads between house lots.

Giving credit to Celebration for serving as a building block of the New Urbanist movement is a bit of a stretch. New Urbanism is a sham; a marketing slogan that developers can paste onto projects in the hope of gaining sympathy votes for some common sense design features. Celebration is derivative and unoriginal when compared to the slightly more revolutionary status of Seaside. As an intellectual experiment it barely qualifies as a footnote to Venturi & Scott-Brown.

2016 predictions post-mortem

The spin department at towers of ilium has been burning the midnight oil for this one.

- Hillary Clinton will be elected president (defeating Ted Cruz). GOP will retain  control of Congress by a more narrow margin.

Annnnnnd.....that's not how it turned out for the first one. Cruz slithered nearly to the end of the primary. Whether his political career will survive and expand is a question that we don't have the luxury or the interest in discussing. Hillary gave it a college try, but this issue has been beaten to death quite thoroughly. The second part of this prediction turned out mostly right. 

-Economy will start to sputter in early/late fall. Fed will hike interest rates 3 times this year.

Nope and nope. One interest rate hike only in December.

-Oil will end the year with an average price of above $50 a barrel for WTI.

Right, but not by much. About $53 as of this writing. Gas for two bucks a gallon is our constitutional right--heh, heh.

-Syrian civil war will stabilize, but not permanently.

If by stable we mean moving to a new level of hell, then yes. Assad and Russia have secured Aleppo and things are bad. 

-ISIL will continue to experience setbacks, but will not be defeated outright.

Yes, but the franchise and ideology is strong.

-Marijuana acceptance will continue to gain traction in U.S.

And, that's a heck yeah. Massachusetts, Florida, etc....all in the gunsights of Mr. Sessions.

-MBTA will putter along. Baker will not be able to make any major changes. The Green Line extension plan will be delayed but not abandoned.

Mostly true, but efforts to secure more Red Line cars are impressive. Baker's team nibbles at the edges of things, securing some union concessions, but no real money for the system.

-Nothing dramatic will happen in Quincy, Mass.

Almost too easy. Downtown development is moving ahead and traffic gets marginally worse each week. All signs of prosperity and joy.

-Housing starts nationally will start to decline towards the end of the year.

Nope. Decent gains, but we see headwinds ahead.

-Europe will lurch more towards the right.

Yes, yes it did.