and through darkness

The death peak for Massachusetts is predicted over the next two weeks. Stress on hospitals will build over the next few days and persist for 3 to 5 weeks.

How will architecture be different after this?

nothing that can be called news

Through a window brightly

-The recession has begun. Architects are beginning to feel the sting and mass layoffs and firm collapses are inevitable.

-The hammer blow of the virus will fall hardest on the state of Florida. The healthcare systems of Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville will be overwhelmed. The re-election prospects of DeSantis may be diminished if the body count gets too high. Social distancing measures cannot be implemented after the fact to prevent any of this.

-Boston is starting its climb up the death ladder. Deaths are less important than hospital overload, but media focus will be dominated by the personal stories. Also, access to facilities will be constrained.

-The Dow is doing some dead cat bounces.

Predictions 2020 Review

Well, things are not going well. This applies to both the predictions made by this blog in January and the human population of this planet.

A few notes and predictions about the Coronavirus disaster:

-It is not a case of mass hysteria and it is not an existential threat. Mortality rates from diseases were much worse in the general population for most of human history. However, people who point to this as a reason for not taking drastic measures should be loaded onto a time machine and taken back to any period in history where things were much worse.

-This will decimate Nursing Home populations in the U.S. We use that term literally.

-The failures of the Trump administration may be offset by combined responses of states and communities. This is an optimistic posture for this blog to take.

Predictions for 2020

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Architecture will be boring.

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

2019 Predictions Review Post

How did I do? 

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

Score: Mostly true. The outcome of the shutdown was to reveal the power that Pelosi and Schumer can muster. Towers of Iium completely missed predicting the Impeachment saga.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

Score: Very Wrong. Stock market gains were solid. My ability to call market moves has a terrible track record.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

Score: Very true. Not a very tough prediction.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

Score: Mostly not true.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: Meh--True but not relevant in the greater scheme of things. 

-Tesla will muddle through

Score: True---Tesla is doing fine. Towers of Ilium has mixed feelings about their status as a revolutionary company.

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: True

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Score: True--but not a very worthy prediction. Biden leads, but 2019 isn't relevant for 2020 political situation, despite the impeachment.

Predictions for 2019

Loyal readers can stop holding their breath. Here's a list of things I'll be wrong about--but I'm already working on ways to spin an explanation.

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

-Tesla will muddle through

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Predictions for 2018-Review and Criticism

predictions for 2018

Review/Responses are in RED

Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

Yes and not yet. So long Sears, Lowe's is in trouble. That some of the property will be turned into housing should happen, but it may not be a trend.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

AI development is impressive--witness Alpha Zero crushing all chess engines. Apple is fading, but that was an easy prediction.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

Yes.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

Kim is playing Trump like a fiddle. China is being patient.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

No. Housing market is strong, but is starting to feel impact of tariffs and interest rates.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

Slightly better, but stock brokers ended the year sad.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

The Khashoggi tragedy is still playing out. Watch out Caesar.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

Meh.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

Of course.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

Yes.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

Except for Nigeria.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

Still ongoing. Kushner is safe for now.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....

Yes and No.