predictions for 2012

Obligatory random building. (In Boston)

So here goes:

1. The world economy this year will only be slightly better than last year. I doubt that there will be any places that stand out as very good or very bad. I doubt that some of the more depressed areas of the U.S. will experience a turn-around.

2. In architecture I predict a mild rebound in single family residential work. The current multi-family construction boom will fizzle by mid-year or possibly sooner. Government and Institutional work will be stalled. Retail and hospitality may improve slightly. Commercial office space will rebound slightly. Healthcare may be entering a long-term structural stall, but nursing home facilities will continue to grow due to demographic pressures.

3. Global warming will continue. So will plate tectonics. The tragedy is that we could have done something about climate change twenty years ago but I think the horse has left the barn at this point. The warming that we will experience in the next twenty years is the result of CO2 released in the past twenty years. Global planning to combat climate change and GHG emissions has proven to be a bust. Despite my disappointment, I am still an advocate of true green architecture and practices that encourage density, sustainability and durability.

4. Authoritarianism in world politics will continue on an upward trend despite the ongoing revolutions in the Middle East. I'm not sure if Assad will last the year in Syria, but I think that the Egyptian military will find a way to hold and consolidate power. The triumph of capitalist democracy that was predicted in the early 90's has not been borne out of by recent history and the disturbing rise of cleverly managed kleptocracies is frustrating and discouraging.

5. The U.S. will not win a gold medal in the men's shot put at the London Olympics.

6. Technological change will be subdued. I think that the great revolutions in the internet, social media, wireless communication and online retail will enter a stage of maturity and consolidation. Apple will begin a long, slow decline.