towers of ilium is smug and triumphant

The following are my predictions about 2012 and my commentary:

1. The world economy this year will only be slightly better than last year. I doubt that there will be any places that stand out as very good or very bad. I doubt that some of the more depressed areas of the U.S. will experience a turn-around.

-Mostly right. The U.S. is creaking out of the recession, but employment to population ratios are not good.
Europe is in deep trouble, and not for the reasons that some people claim it is. 

2. In architecture I predict a mild rebound in single family residential work. The current multi-family construction boom will fizzle by mid-year or possibly sooner. Government and Institutional work will be stalled. Retail and hospitality may improve slightly. Commercial office space will rebound slightly. Healthcare may be entering a long-term structural stall, but nursing home facilities will continue to grow due to demographic pressures. 

-Mostly right. Of course, Bill McBride of Calculated Risk called this before anyone else. Towers of Ilium is just a parrot.

3. Global warming will continue. So will plate tectonics. The tragedy is that we could have done something about climate change twenty years ago but I think the horse has left the barn at this point. The warming that we will experience in the next twenty years is the result of CO2 released in the past twenty years. Global planning to combat climate change and GHG emissions has proven to be a bust. Despite my disappointment, I am still an advocate of true green architecture and practices that encourage density, sustainability and durability. 

Gee, not much risk predicting that. In architecture, greenwashing has become a refined part of design services. No real data seems to be collected on performance issues. 
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4. Authoritarianism in world politics will continue on an upward trend despite the ongoing revolutions in the Middle East. I'm not sure if Assad will last the year in Syria, but I think that the Egyptian military will find a way to hold and consolidate power. The triumph of capitalist democracy that was predicted in the early 90's has not been borne out of by recent history and the disturbing rise of cleverly managed kleptocracies is frustrating and discouraging. 

-In Egypt, Morsi is turning out to be a real piece of shit. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. I'll give Assad until June.

5. The U.S. will not win a gold medal in the men's shot put at the London Olympics.

-An easy prediction.

6. Technological change will be subdued. I think that the great revolutions in the internet, social media, wireless communication and online retail will enter a stage of maturity and consolidation. Apple will begin a long, slow decline.

-Too soon to tell. I think that we're paying too much for communication services in relation to the rate of improvements. I wish that more stuff was wireless without costing an arm and a leg.