ruminations about architecture and design

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Predictions for 2018-Review and Criticism

predictions for 2018


Review/Responses are in RED
Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

Yes and not yet. So long Sears, Lowe's is in trouble. That some of the property will be turned into housing should happen, but it may not be a trend.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

AI development is impressive--witness Alpha Zero crushing all chess engines. Apple is fading, but that was an easy prediction.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

Yes.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

Kim is playing Trump like a fiddle. China is being patient.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

No. Housing market is strong, but is starting to feel impact of tariffs and interest rates.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

Slightly better, but stock brokers ended the year sad.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

The Khashoggi tragedy is still playing out. Watch out Caesar.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

Meh.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

Of course.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

Yes.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

Except for Nigeria.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

Still ongoing. Kushner is safe for now.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....

Yes and No.