in memorian-john portman

John Portman was best known for his large buildings, but his forays into domestic architecture reveal the sensitivity of his design philosophy. That is why these photos of a house in Georgia have been chosen as the imagery of this send-off at towers of ilium. We can remember him as the most successful architect of the 20th century. (This compliment in a back-handed reference to Philip Johnson's comment about Frank Lloyd Wright being the greatest 19th century architect.) In terms of volume, Portman probably outdid all of his peers. In terms of critical acclaim, he was largely ignored--his name is absent from academic discourse, except perhaps as a cautionary tale.

His work has been called "neo-futurism" which in the age of smart-phones and Amazon feels distinctly nostalgic. He indulged in a form of heroic modernism distinguished by muscular shapes, high ceilings, and the occasional drapery of vegetation. His work spoke of indoor commerce, the click of heels across the terrazzo floors of a shopping mall or late nights in a hotel bar. Roger Moore as James Bond will come striding out across that orange carpet to greet us as we sip a vodka martini in the dim light of the atrium.

His career had its ups and downs--mostly ups, for a property developer he both absorbed and transferred financial risks. In the end, he was a good bet, and lenders never consigned his designs to value-engineering. His designs came pre-engineered--suitable for mass production and easy to renovate as stylistic trends shifted.

It will be curious to see if any of his work gets singled out for preservation. Such a tribute might be contrary to the energy of his work. His architecture was the progress of the 20th century, complete with all of its setbacks, from the decline of cities to their rebirths. That he could be imitated successfully is the greatest tribute of all.

excitement for the past

2017 was a blend of events. The Trump administration and the Trump personality diverged in ways that the media did not fully grasp. Tweets are not policy, and with a few exceptions, U.S. government policy was standard, hard-right orthodoxy. The exceptions were the Mueller investigation and the expanded crackdown on immigration. Mueller's work will probably end in an anti-climactic fashion sometime in 2018. The issues surrounding immigration will persist for decades.

The U.S. continues to diversify, despite the feverish efforts of the Miller/Bannon crowd. The big questions circle around whether geographic divisions and ethnic divisions will maintain familiar patterns. Will cities continue to be "melting pots" with entrenched power bases that are still mostly white (cue, Boston) or will there be a true cultural reformation in critical areas like California and the Southwest?

2017 prediction review

Towers of ilium has integrity and traditions. We can admit when we're wrong, however rare such an occurence may be. Here are the predictions for 2017 and our objective analysis:


-The world economy will muddle along for most of the year. As potential impacts from Trump start to percolate through markets there will be signs of disruption towards the end of the year. China may have some minor crises, but will be managed. Russia will be stagnant. Europe will improve. Developing countries will improve slightly. Major drama will be reserved for 2018 (to be discussed in the towers of ilium Trump Predictions special edition)

The world economy has been doing okay--so the the "muddle along" prediction is mostly correct. China is stable, Europe, with the exception of Britain, seems to be doing fine. There are not disruptions evident other than the idiocy of Bitcoin.

-U.S. economy will start strong and then weaken as the year progresses.

Mostly wrong. Things are great, and will continue to be great.

-Oil prices will be volatile and end the year above $65 a barrel.

Half right. Prices were stable and have only recently crept above $62.

-Renewable energy will continue to grow globally, but will suffer setbacks in the U.S.

The stock market surge has generally concealed any sector weaknesses. 

-U.S. housing starts will surge, but will be tempered by rising interest rates

No and no.

-Fed will hike rates 3 times in 2017

Yes, it did.

-ISIL will lose Mosul, and Raqqa will be besieged but not fall.

Mosul was "liberated" and ISIL also lost Raqqa. The prospects of ISIL as a long-running terror franchise are robust.

-Middle East turmoil will be variable. Saudi Arabia will pull back some on its military adventures in Yemen and will seek more diplomacy with Iran. Bibi will continue to isolate Israel. Sisi will get weaker in Egypt.

Middle East is getting worse. The adventurism of Salman is defining the trajectory of many events in the region. Yemen is still terrible. Bibi and Sisi seem to be stable. Relations between Iran and the U.S. continue to deteriorate, but Iran can position itself with Europe and Asia if it wants.

-Boston real estate will continue to cool. Prices will not soften.

Sort of and yes. A reckoning is coming.

-Architecture will continue to improve sustainable design practices. There will be more conservative buildings coming online and on the boards.

Sort of, and maybe. There are no revolutions in design for the most part.

-Nothing dramatic will happen at the MBTA.

A mixed bag on this. Improvements to the Wollaston T stop are underway. The Green Line extension contract was awarded. Discussion about the future of the Allston railyard is heating up.

2017 will be less exciting than 2016 (long drumroll on that one please.....)

sears, roebuck, & bezos

This connection has been made before, so it is not the intent of towers of ilium to make a novel observation. A larger issue here is the conceit and goal of business that everything that can be desired can eventually be manufactured and sold. Economics stands in opposition to the principle of business, by postulating infinite, and ultimately unsatisfied desires. Sears, Roebuck circumvented this quandry of economics by legitimately offering more than any one person could ever want or buy. Their success laid the foundations for their ultimate failure. Bezos has simpler aims, but he has failed as a businessman because he always takes the customer and the supplier for granted. Intangible experiences are desired more, and command higher prices, than any item stocked in a warehouse. So far, Amazon cannot sell that.

a yellow wind for predictions

A few days from now, after the stupor of the holiday has worn off, the editorial staff of towers of ilium will convene to discuss the appropriate response to the predictions made by the blog for 2017. They will also be working on predictions for 2018. Please try not to fall off the floor while this happens.

the tax bill and architecture

The economics and business team at towers of ilium stayed up past midnight calculating the impact of the new tax legislation on architecture and construction. The following conclusions have been drawn;

-The lowering of the corporate tax rate gives companies an incentive to invest in more trophy buildings for management and executive staff. Some firms may even use the extra cash to dabble in commercial real estate, which could inflate prices in non-distressed regions. In sum, San Francisco, New York, and Boston will experience high end churn, flips, and development, e.g. more of the same

-Luxury homebuilders may suffer some setbacks in high-tax areas, but the overall residential building market will continue to expand in areas that are willing to permit development.

-Architecture firms will have more incentive to consolidate further and expand services into construction and property management.

This sounds like good news, but extra cash has a way of generating trouble, particularly when many urban markets are already overpriced. Another single-family bust is unlikely for a while, but bubble in commercial property could go sideways in a bad way.

awash on the shores of an unknown land

Sometimes, things happen quickly. Improvements to American infrastructure, however, will happen very slowly and will be one of the chief sources of inequality in the decades ahead. Despite the congestion in urban areas, the greatest negative impacts will be in places with negative population growth--the countrysides.

limits on reality

Machine learning, AI, Big Data, and augmented reality are the Big Ideas in technology. If history is any guide, none of these things will benefit the design profession. In fact, designers will continue to be held to ever more unrealistic expectations. Design explorations will continue through multiple iterations with no resolution, which will be fine if fees are in place to cover the time. Smart clients will be judicious in their use of this type of service. But what color should it be? The algorithms have declared mauve to be the in-color of 2056.

boston odds and ends

-Governor Baker has proposed legislation that would make zoning changes in towns easier to pass. If zoning regulations are relaxed, more housing could be built. So goes the theory. Towers of ilium assigns low odds of success to this.

-Low odds of success are assigned to the second phase of the Fenway Center project. The second phase involves building a deck over the Mass Pike to support buildings. These projects are usually killed by recessions.

-A recession is still 12 to 18 months away. This blog made a similar prediction 12 or 18 months ago.

-The stone floor in the picture is not stone--it is porcelain tile.

the problem with silicon valley

The problem with Silicon Valley is that it is a valley. This geographic fact is a major annoyance to the people who live there--and more importantly, to the people who want to live there, but can't because housing costs are too high, transportation is too restricted, and the damn mountains around the valley are mountains and not flat land. Agglomeration theory is good until it runs into geography.

But, what about densification? Good luck.

the sublime

A sense of security is often achieved by elevation. Weight is associated with quality. Water reminds us of distant aquatic lifestyles. In sum, our senses betray us, because beauty does not hold the key to the next square meal, and a good night's sleep is worth more than all the gold sunk at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

the origins of formality

Architects are conceited enough to believe that every aspect of their design will elicit an emotional response. The shape of a room, the curve of a moulding, the color of a wall--all are regarded as notes in symphony. What people feel, however, can be dramatically altered by conditions over which the designer has no control. A bright day can make a marginal space feel wonderful--and vice versa. People who aren't architects tend to notice and comment on furniture and decorations most frequently. Architects respond by designing spaces stripped down to pure volumes, which are not often appreciated by the public.

Odds of a war with North Korea this year are at about 40%