2017 prediction review

Towers of ilium has integrity and traditions. We can admit when we're wrong, however rare such an occurence may be. Here are the predictions for 2017 and our objective analysis:


-The world economy will muddle along for most of the year. As potential impacts from Trump start to percolate through markets there will be signs of disruption towards the end of the year. China may have some minor crises, but will be managed. Russia will be stagnant. Europe will improve. Developing countries will improve slightly. Major drama will be reserved for 2018 (to be discussed in the towers of ilium Trump Predictions special edition)

The world economy has been doing okay--so the the "muddle along" prediction is mostly correct. China is stable, Europe, with the exception of Britain, seems to be doing fine. There are not disruptions evident other than the idiocy of Bitcoin.

-U.S. economy will start strong and then weaken as the year progresses.

Mostly wrong. Things are great, and will continue to be great.

-Oil prices will be volatile and end the year above $65 a barrel.

Half right. Prices were stable and have only recently crept above $62.

-Renewable energy will continue to grow globally, but will suffer setbacks in the U.S.

The stock market surge has generally concealed any sector weaknesses. 

-U.S. housing starts will surge, but will be tempered by rising interest rates

No and no.

-Fed will hike rates 3 times in 2017

Yes, it did.

-ISIL will lose Mosul, and Raqqa will be besieged but not fall.

Mosul was "liberated" and ISIL also lost Raqqa. The prospects of ISIL as a long-running terror franchise are robust.

-Middle East turmoil will be variable. Saudi Arabia will pull back some on its military adventures in Yemen and will seek more diplomacy with Iran. Bibi will continue to isolate Israel. Sisi will get weaker in Egypt.

Middle East is getting worse. The adventurism of Salman is defining the trajectory of many events in the region. Yemen is still terrible. Bibi and Sisi seem to be stable. Relations between Iran and the U.S. continue to deteriorate, but Iran can position itself with Europe and Asia if it wants.

-Boston real estate will continue to cool. Prices will not soften.

Sort of and yes. A reckoning is coming.

-Architecture will continue to improve sustainable design practices. There will be more conservative buildings coming online and on the boards.

Sort of, and maybe. There are no revolutions in design for the most part.

-Nothing dramatic will happen at the MBTA.

A mixed bag on this. Improvements to the Wollaston T stop are underway. The Green Line extension contract was awarded. Discussion about the future of the Allston railyard is heating up.

2017 will be less exciting than 2016 (long drumroll on that one please.....)