2020 Predictions Review

 

Here it goes....

Claims from last year are in purple.

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Iran wasn't significant in terms of news. As for major surprises, well, there's THAT.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Correct--and easy.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Correct--but closer than it should have been given the circumstances.

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Correct, despite the Trump and Republican idiocy following the election. (still ongoing)

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Correct. Although Barret, like Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, have no interest in carrying water for Trump in a personal way.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-TBD by Georgia elections, but Towers of Ilium stands by this claim.

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-Correct--but GOP picked up some seats.

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Correct several times, but overshadowed by Covid.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Uncertain, and not particularly relevant.

-Architecture will be boring.

-Correct, mostly. 

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-Correct--overshadowed by Covid, but online meetings have significant limitations.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-Nope, but above 30,000---which means almost nothing.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

-Nope, but contingent on Covid.

abandonment and memory

 

The grim title of this post is juxtaposed with a picture of a house that occupies a special place in the pantheon of American architecture. It's hard to tell from the photo, but the 3rd Harrison Otis house is in need of some repairs. A fitting analogy for the state of the country it occupies.

The autumn of the pandemic is shaping up strangely. The president is recovering from the virus and is defiant. His supporters are fervent and enthused. Many of the most vulnerable in the population have died. Winter will bring a new loneliness. 

an idiot darkly

The Covid virus continues to support mathematical rules, which is bad news for a nation that denies objectivity and logic. As of this post, the death toll in the U.S. exceeds 122,00. A grim prediction that I made several months ago was that nursing home populations would be decimated. That prediction has been borne out---and may eventually turn out to be wrong by a factor of 2.

The way forward, in the context of current leadership, continues to be unpredictable. Florida is in trouble, along with a significant number of other Southern states. The Northeast continues the reopening experiment. It will be a long summer.

Qualifications

"Re-opening" continues and it will be hard to predict how this goes. This blog could be wrong about continued supply chain disruptions. Meatpacking operations might decide on an acceptable level of deaths and sickness. Bacon is dwindling in the local supermarket, but toilet paper is making a comeback.

Official White House line is now "They were doomed anyway, because they were sick, because they were black, because it was destiny....."

Death rate implies 150,000 gone by August.

we should have died hereafter

For all intents and purposes, the month of May will mark the end of a coordinated response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. A political calculus has been made by the Trump administration that an elevated death toll that persists through the rest of the year is economically and morally acceptable. There will be a concentrated push for a return to "business as normal."

This will not work as planned for the following reasons:

-Varying degrees of social distancing will persist among the general population regardless of what business leaders and politicians hope for. Economic disruption for leisure service businesses will continue to be severe.
-Strain on healthcare services will be considerable and elective procedures and preventive medical services will be curtailed for several months.
-Disruptions in supply chains--particularly food production--will be constant because of concentrated outbreaks in plants, worker uprisings, and legal action.
-The rest of the world won't support the U.S.

even the four horseman are practicing social distancing

Some Americans are in the process of discovering that you cannot eat money.

As of this blog post, official U.S. Covid-19 deaths have passed Vietnam.

Meat shortages will prevail across the country for the next several months.

We can hope that this relatively useless piece of media will persist in some server farm for a few more years.

the road behind

The Covid-19 pandemic will hopefully cause a re-assessment of what is truly important. Towers of Ilium will refer to this, with optimism, as the Maslow Revolution. The modern state depends on the following critical activities and systems, roughly in order of importance:

-Industrial food production systems
-Transportation networks---primarily for food
-Fuel systems, including the electric grid
-Shelter (more on this later)
-Trash removal and other sanitation infrastructure
-Electronic communication networks
-Public education systems*
-Emergency Healthcare

Under normal circumstances, what percentage of the economy do all of those add up to?

With respect to the current recession and the ongoing impacts of the pandemic, what economic sectors are going to be well and truly fucked for the next several months or years? Here's a short list:

-Personal air travel--particularly for leisure, and also for business
-Dine-in Restaurants
-Hotels and other temporary lodgings---and nearly all support systems
-Elective healthcare---even if it's very important for survival
-Discretionary energy use associated with all of the above
-Architecture

and through darkness

The death peak for Massachusetts is predicted over the next two weeks. Stress on hospitals will build over the next few days and persist for 3 to 5 weeks.

How will architecture be different after this?

nothing that can be called news

Through a window brightly

-The recession has begun. Architects are beginning to feel the sting and mass layoffs and firm collapses are inevitable.

-The hammer blow of the virus will fall hardest on the state of Florida. The healthcare systems of Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville will be overwhelmed. The re-election prospects of DeSantis may be diminished if the body count gets too high. Social distancing measures cannot be implemented after the fact to prevent any of this.

-Boston is starting its climb up the death ladder. Deaths are less important than hospital overload, but media focus will be dominated by the personal stories. Also, access to facilities will be constrained.

-The Dow is doing some dead cat bounces.

Predictions 2020 Review

Well, things are not going well. This applies to both the predictions made by this blog in January and the human population of this planet.

A few notes and predictions about the Coronavirus disaster:

-It is not a case of mass hysteria and it is not an existential threat. Mortality rates from diseases were much worse in the general population for most of human history. However, people who point to this as a reason for not taking drastic measures should be loaded onto a time machine and taken back to any period in history where things were much worse.

-This will decimate Nursing Home populations in the U.S. We use that term literally.

-The failures of the Trump administration may be offset by combined responses of states and communities. This is an optimistic posture for this blog to take.

Predictions for 2020

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Architecture will be boring.

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

2019 Predictions Review Post

How did I do? 

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

Score: Mostly true. The outcome of the shutdown was to reveal the power that Pelosi and Schumer can muster. Towers of Iium completely missed predicting the Impeachment saga.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

Score: Very Wrong. Stock market gains were solid. My ability to call market moves has a terrible track record.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

Score: Very true. Not a very tough prediction.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

Score: Mostly not true.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: Meh--True but not relevant in the greater scheme of things. 

-Tesla will muddle through

Score: True---Tesla is doing fine. Towers of Ilium has mixed feelings about their status as a revolutionary company.

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: True

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Score: True--but not a very worthy prediction. Biden leads, but 2019 isn't relevant for 2020 political situation, despite the impeachment.