Predictions for 2020

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Architecture will be boring.

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

2019 Predictions Review Post

How did I do? 

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

Score: Mostly true. The outcome of the shutdown was to reveal the power that Pelosi and Schumer can muster. Towers of Iium completely missed predicting the Impeachment saga.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

Score: Very Wrong. Stock market gains were solid. My ability to call market moves has a terrible track record.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

Score: Very true. Not a very tough prediction.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

Score: Mostly not true.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: Meh--True but not relevant in the greater scheme of things. 

-Tesla will muddle through

Score: True---Tesla is doing fine. Towers of Ilium has mixed feelings about their status as a revolutionary company.

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: True

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Score: True--but not a very worthy prediction. Biden leads, but 2019 isn't relevant for 2020 political situation, despite the impeachment.