nothing that can be called news

Through a window brightly

-The recession has begun. Architects are beginning to feel the sting and mass layoffs and firm collapses are inevitable.

-The hammer blow of the virus will fall hardest on the state of Florida. The healthcare systems of Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville will be overwhelmed. The re-election prospects of DeSantis may be diminished if the body count gets too high. Social distancing measures cannot be implemented after the fact to prevent any of this.

-Boston is starting its climb up the death ladder. Deaths are less important than hospital overload, but media focus will be dominated by the personal stories. Also, access to facilities will be constrained.

-The Dow is doing some dead cat bounces.

Predictions 2020 Review

Well, things are not going well. This applies to both the predictions made by this blog in January and the human population of this planet.

A few notes and predictions about the Coronavirus disaster:

-It is not a case of mass hysteria and it is not an existential threat. Mortality rates from diseases were much worse in the general population for most of human history. However, people who point to this as a reason for not taking drastic measures should be loaded onto a time machine and taken back to any period in history where things were much worse.

-This will decimate Nursing Home populations in the U.S. We use that term literally.

-The failures of the Trump administration may be offset by combined responses of states and communities. This is an optimistic posture for this blog to take.