2020 Predictions Review

 

Here it goes....

Claims from last year are in purple.

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Iran wasn't significant in terms of news. As for major surprises, well, there's THAT.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Correct--and easy.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Correct--but closer than it should have been given the circumstances.

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Correct, despite the Trump and Republican idiocy following the election. (still ongoing)

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Correct. Although Barret, like Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, have no interest in carrying water for Trump in a personal way.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-TBD by Georgia elections, but Towers of Ilium stands by this claim.

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-Correct--but GOP picked up some seats.

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Correct several times, but overshadowed by Covid.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Uncertain, and not particularly relevant.

-Architecture will be boring.

-Correct, mostly. 

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-Correct--overshadowed by Covid, but online meetings have significant limitations.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-Nope, but above 30,000---which means almost nothing.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

-Nope, but contingent on Covid.

abandonment and memory

 

The grim title of this post is juxtaposed with a picture of a house that occupies a special place in the pantheon of American architecture. It's hard to tell from the photo, but the 3rd Harrison Otis house is in need of some repairs. A fitting analogy for the state of the country it occupies.

The autumn of the pandemic is shaping up strangely. The president is recovering from the virus and is defiant. His supporters are fervent and enthused. Many of the most vulnerable in the population have died. Winter will bring a new loneliness. 

an idiot darkly

The Covid virus continues to support mathematical rules, which is bad news for a nation that denies objectivity and logic. As of this post, the death toll in the U.S. exceeds 122,00. A grim prediction that I made several months ago was that nursing home populations would be decimated. That prediction has been borne out---and may eventually turn out to be wrong by a factor of 2.

The way forward, in the context of current leadership, continues to be unpredictable. Florida is in trouble, along with a significant number of other Southern states. The Northeast continues the reopening experiment. It will be a long summer.

Qualifications

"Re-opening" continues and it will be hard to predict how this goes. This blog could be wrong about continued supply chain disruptions. Meatpacking operations might decide on an acceptable level of deaths and sickness. Bacon is dwindling in the local supermarket, but toilet paper is making a comeback.

Official White House line is now "They were doomed anyway, because they were sick, because they were black, because it was destiny....."

Death rate implies 150,000 gone by August.

we should have died hereafter

For all intents and purposes, the month of May will mark the end of a coordinated response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. A political calculus has been made by the Trump administration that an elevated death toll that persists through the rest of the year is economically and morally acceptable. There will be a concentrated push for a return to "business as normal."

This will not work as planned for the following reasons:

-Varying degrees of social distancing will persist among the general population regardless of what business leaders and politicians hope for. Economic disruption for leisure service businesses will continue to be severe.
-Strain on healthcare services will be considerable and elective procedures and preventive medical services will be curtailed for several months.
-Disruptions in supply chains--particularly food production--will be constant because of concentrated outbreaks in plants, worker uprisings, and legal action.
-The rest of the world won't support the U.S.

even the four horseman are practicing social distancing

Some Americans are in the process of discovering that you cannot eat money.

As of this blog post, official U.S. Covid-19 deaths have passed Vietnam.

Meat shortages will prevail across the country for the next several months.

We can hope that this relatively useless piece of media will persist in some server farm for a few more years.

the road behind

The Covid-19 pandemic will hopefully cause a re-assessment of what is truly important. Towers of Ilium will refer to this, with optimism, as the Maslow Revolution. The modern state depends on the following critical activities and systems, roughly in order of importance:

-Industrial food production systems
-Transportation networks---primarily for food
-Fuel systems, including the electric grid
-Shelter (more on this later)
-Trash removal and other sanitation infrastructure
-Electronic communication networks
-Public education systems*
-Emergency Healthcare

Under normal circumstances, what percentage of the economy do all of those add up to?

With respect to the current recession and the ongoing impacts of the pandemic, what economic sectors are going to be well and truly fucked for the next several months or years? Here's a short list:

-Personal air travel--particularly for leisure, and also for business
-Dine-in Restaurants
-Hotels and other temporary lodgings---and nearly all support systems
-Elective healthcare---even if it's very important for survival
-Discretionary energy use associated with all of the above
-Architecture

and through darkness

The death peak for Massachusetts is predicted over the next two weeks. Stress on hospitals will build over the next few days and persist for 3 to 5 weeks.

How will architecture be different after this?

nothing that can be called news

Through a window brightly

-The recession has begun. Architects are beginning to feel the sting and mass layoffs and firm collapses are inevitable.

-The hammer blow of the virus will fall hardest on the state of Florida. The healthcare systems of Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville will be overwhelmed. The re-election prospects of DeSantis may be diminished if the body count gets too high. Social distancing measures cannot be implemented after the fact to prevent any of this.

-Boston is starting its climb up the death ladder. Deaths are less important than hospital overload, but media focus will be dominated by the personal stories. Also, access to facilities will be constrained.

-The Dow is doing some dead cat bounces.

Predictions 2020 Review

Well, things are not going well. This applies to both the predictions made by this blog in January and the human population of this planet.

A few notes and predictions about the Coronavirus disaster:

-It is not a case of mass hysteria and it is not an existential threat. Mortality rates from diseases were much worse in the general population for most of human history. However, people who point to this as a reason for not taking drastic measures should be loaded onto a time machine and taken back to any period in history where things were much worse.

-This will decimate Nursing Home populations in the U.S. We use that term literally.

-The failures of the Trump administration may be offset by combined responses of states and communities. This is an optimistic posture for this blog to take.

Predictions for 2020

Towers of Ilium got a late start to the predictions for this year, which means that events in Iran are only dealt with in a superficial way. Editorial staff doesn't anticipate more major surprises, just a slow burn.

-Trump survives through the year---there will not be enough, if any, Senate vote defections to remove him from office. This is an easy prediction, but this blog needs to have at least one success.

-Trump will not be elected for a second term. 

-Biden will be the next president of the United States.

-Ruth Bader Ginsburg will die and Trump will get one final pick for the Supreme Court.

-Republicans will retain control of the Senate

-Democrats will retain control of the House

-A major weather event will impact the east coast of the U.S.---prior to the presidential election. Federal response to this event will be incompetent and hurt Trump, but not significantly.

-Attempts to make local zoning regulations more sensible will persist on multiple fronts across the Unite States this year. There will be some minor advances.

-Architecture will be boring.

-"Construction Technology" is a dead end.

-The Dow will close above 35,000 by year end.

-There will not be a recession. Growth in the U.S. will average 2%

2019 Predictions Review Post

How did I do? 

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

Score: Mostly true. The outcome of the shutdown was to reveal the power that Pelosi and Schumer can muster. Towers of Iium completely missed predicting the Impeachment saga.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

Score: Very Wrong. Stock market gains were solid. My ability to call market moves has a terrible track record.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

Score: Very true. Not a very tough prediction.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

Score: Mostly not true.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: Meh--True but not relevant in the greater scheme of things. 

-Tesla will muddle through

Score: True---Tesla is doing fine. Towers of Ilium has mixed feelings about their status as a revolutionary company.

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

Score: True

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Score: True--but not a very worthy prediction. Biden leads, but 2019 isn't relevant for 2020 political situation, despite the impeachment.

Predictions for 2019

Loyal readers can stop holding their breath. Here's a list of things I'll be wrong about--but I'm already working on ways to spin an explanation.

-Trump will fold on the Government shutdown but successfully spin it as a victory for his base.

-Stock market volatility will be high and things will continue to trend sideways.

-U.S. GDP growth will be in the 2% range. A recession will not start.

-Software companies and biotech companies will have a difficult year.

-Architecture will continue to be banal (is this even a worthy prediction?)

-Tesla will muddle through

-Renewable energy improvements will continue (is this even a worthy prediction?)

-The Democratic presidential candidacy horse race will not be resolved in favor of anyone.

Predictions for 2018-Review and Criticism

predictions for 2018

Review/Responses are in RED

Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

Yes and not yet. So long Sears, Lowe's is in trouble. That some of the property will be turned into housing should happen, but it may not be a trend.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

AI development is impressive--witness Alpha Zero crushing all chess engines. Apple is fading, but that was an easy prediction.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

Yes.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

Kim is playing Trump like a fiddle. China is being patient.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

No. Housing market is strong, but is starting to feel impact of tariffs and interest rates.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

Slightly better, but stock brokers ended the year sad.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

The Khashoggi tragedy is still playing out. Watch out Caesar.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

Meh.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

Of course.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

Yes.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

Except for Nigeria.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

Still ongoing. Kushner is safe for now.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....

Yes and No.

bending the truth on predictions for 2018

The editorial staff at towers of ilium had a meeting about predictions made by the blog for the current year. They agreed on this: it's too soon to say.

The economy is doing better than expected. The word on the street is that their won't be a downturn until after the end of Trump's first term. Global momentum will be tempered by higher interest rates and higher oil prices, but so far there doesn't seem to be the silliness that preceded the last economic collapse.

And what about war? Those in progress will continue.

important reference-u.s. suburban development

Never mind the suburbs, here's the zoning pistols:

https://www.buildzoom.com/blog/pockets-of-dense-construction-in-a-dormant-suburban-interior

This extensive post by Issi Romen provides some good insights into the current trends of American urban land use. Although he outlines some solutions, he does not sound that optimistic. Towers of ilium agrees.

counter-reactionaries-brutalism

Heroic Brutalism has been compared to some of the architecture from the Victorian era, which was regarded as a style of excess. Contemporary preservationists are urging for a more sensitive treatment of Brutalist buildings and at least one line of argument is plausible: fashions change, tastes change, styles change--and sometimes everything comes round again. Since architecture is subject to criticism on the basis of function and durability, however, the ability to protect Brutalist monuments is more difficult.

Some very excessive buildings from the 19th century continue to be preserved and reused. Memorial Hall at Harvard is a notable example. It is an impressive pile of interpretative Gothic detailing. The plan is an overt frame of a cathedral. And like a cathedral, it serves a diverse (even for Harvard) congregation--particularly at mealtimes.

Herein lies a lesson for preservationists--the building has to work. And at some fundamental levels, Brutalist buildings did not work. The most notable Brutalist architects, working in the best spirit of experimental Modernism, sought to create unique geometric experiences that broke with millenia of building practices. A bit more reinforced concrete, a bit more height, a bit more cantilever were the ingredients of magazine worthy Brutalism.

The Victorian era, which was revolutionary, made it possible for Richardson to engage in his own experiments. His most successful projects were deeply restrained, but as Hitchcock noted, he was the last traditionalist. There are some successful knock-offs, like this:

But, the decorated splendor of the 19th century would give way to an age of glass and steel. Brutalism, ultimately, was a dead end. Good for photographers.

where the hell did the news go

Now that the blood has been cleaned up there's not much interest in the general media about the Florida pedestrian bridge collapse. There are some possible lessons from this absence of follow-up, and more importantly about the challenges associated with designing and building anything, anywhere, for any purpose.

-Complexity kills. Changes to complex things are necessary, but should be approached with caution

-Redundancy should not be forsaken for an assumption that better computers can solve all problems

-It takes more time than anyone appreciates

-Nothing will ever be perfect

the age of abandonment

The often overlooked ingredient of successful preservation of historic architecture is neglect. The fewer cycles of repair and replacement undertaken by the owners of a building the more authentic it is.

This house is a bit past its prime, but it is a good window into the past. Although its probable that only the chimney is original, the significant age of the windows, trim, and siding speaks to owners who respected history.

the age of loopholes

This double curved entry roof is an exceptional detail on an otherwise unexceptional house. Towers of ilium doubts that it is original. But, so what?

The recent fire at the Trump Tower in New York reveals something important about the evolution of building codes. At the time of its construction--1979--Fire Code regulations were fairly well advanced. However, residential occupancies in high rises were considered low risk, especially when compared to more public spaces like theaters and hospitals. Additionally, fire safety was still focused on the general robustness of the building structure, which was applied to skyscrapers regardless of use. We can imagine a young Donald Trump saying "Why the hell do we need to waste money on sprinklers?!" More significantly, if his design team was doing its job they would never have suggested that the client spend money on something that was not mandated by code.

So, we have one person dead, but the building is still standing. It is doubtful that the building owner will disrupt tenants and bring the sprinkler system in line with current code or best practices.