the tax bill and architecture

The economics and business team at towers of ilium stayed up past midnight calculating the impact of the new tax legislation on architecture and construction. The following conclusions have been drawn;

-The lowering of the corporate tax rate gives companies an incentive to invest in more trophy buildings for management and executive staff. Some firms may even use the extra cash to dabble in commercial real estate, which could inflate prices in non-distressed regions. In sum, San Francisco, New York, and Boston will experience high end churn, flips, and development, e.g. more of the same

-Luxury homebuilders may suffer some setbacks in high-tax areas, but the overall residential building market will continue to expand in areas that are willing to permit development.

-Architecture firms will have more incentive to consolidate further and expand services into construction and property management.

This sounds like good news, but extra cash has a way of generating trouble, particularly when many urban markets are already overpriced. Another single-family bust is unlikely for a while, but bubble in commercial property could go sideways in a bad way.

awash on the shores of an unknown land

Sometimes, things happen quickly. Improvements to American infrastructure, however, will happen very slowly and will be one of the chief sources of inequality in the decades ahead. Despite the congestion in urban areas, the greatest negative impacts will be in places with negative population growth--the countrysides.

limits on reality

Machine learning, AI, Big Data, and augmented reality are the Big Ideas in technology. If history is any guide, none of these things will benefit the design profession. In fact, designers will continue to be held to ever more unrealistic expectations. Design explorations will continue through multiple iterations with no resolution, which will be fine if fees are in place to cover the time. Smart clients will be judicious in their use of this type of service. But what color should it be? The algorithms have declared mauve to be the in-color of 2056.

boston odds and ends

-Governor Baker has proposed legislation that would make zoning changes in towns easier to pass. If zoning regulations are relaxed, more housing could be built. So goes the theory. Towers of ilium assigns low odds of success to this.

-Low odds of success are assigned to the second phase of the Fenway Center project. The second phase involves building a deck over the Mass Pike to support buildings. These projects are usually killed by recessions.

-A recession is still 12 to 18 months away. This blog made a similar prediction 12 or 18 months ago.

-The stone floor in the picture is not stone--it is porcelain tile.

the problem with silicon valley

The problem with Silicon Valley is that it is a valley. This geographic fact is a major annoyance to the people who live there--and more importantly, to the people who want to live there, but can't because housing costs are too high, transportation is too restricted, and the damn mountains around the valley are mountains and not flat land. Agglomeration theory is good until it runs into geography.

But, what about densification? Good luck.

the sublime

A sense of security is often achieved by elevation. Weight is associated with quality. Water reminds us of distant aquatic lifestyles. In sum, our senses betray us, because beauty does not hold the key to the next square meal, and a good night's sleep is worth more than all the gold sunk at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.

the origins of formality

Architects are conceited enough to believe that every aspect of their design will elicit an emotional response. The shape of a room, the curve of a moulding, the color of a wall--all are regarded as notes in symphony. What people feel, however, can be dramatically altered by conditions over which the designer has no control. A bright day can make a marginal space feel wonderful--and vice versa. People who aren't architects tend to notice and comment on furniture and decorations most frequently. Architects respond by designing spaces stripped down to pure volumes, which are not often appreciated by the public.

Odds of a war with North Korea this year are at about 40%