The economic and business team at towers of ilium has wrapped up its analysis of plans that Amazon has for a second headquarters site. They have concluded, after exhaustive research and many late nights, that the odds of any place in Massachusetts landing this fish are less than 1%. The reasons are as follows:
-Prime spots in the greater Boston metro region are too expensive and the infrastructure is already overwhelmed. The downmarket spots like New Bedford and Worcester don't have the talent pool.
-Saturation of the tech market in the Boston zone would make positions hard to fill at competitive salary rates. Political opposition to Amazon policies would be considerable.
-Neither Charlie Baker nor Marty Walsh needs to cough up bribes to another big company to sustain the state's economic system.
So, where will Amazon end up? Maybe nowhere. But, before we consider that possibility, let's state that the natural place for the company to re-centralize itself would be in some southern state like North Carolina. Costs are lower, infrastructure is less congested, and politicians of all stripes will open up taxpayer wallets in a hurry.
Amazon actually doesn't need a second headquarters. What they do need is a national recession to test the resiliency of their business model and the business models of their competitors. The internet retailers with the best organizations and lowest overhead will emerge from this recession with bigger market shares--regardless of their home base locations. If Amazon does choose some hapless east coast city for its new digs, the plan will fizzle once the stock market crashes. Amazon, with all its warehouses and robots and employees will probably make it through.
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