Predictions for 2018-Review and Criticism

predictions for 2018

Review/Responses are in RED

Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

Yes and not yet. So long Sears, Lowe's is in trouble. That some of the property will be turned into housing should happen, but it may not be a trend.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

AI development is impressive--witness Alpha Zero crushing all chess engines. Apple is fading, but that was an easy prediction.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

Yes.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

Kim is playing Trump like a fiddle. China is being patient.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

No. Housing market is strong, but is starting to feel impact of tariffs and interest rates.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

Slightly better, but stock brokers ended the year sad.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

The Khashoggi tragedy is still playing out. Watch out Caesar.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

Meh.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

Of course.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

Yes.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

Except for Nigeria.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

Still ongoing. Kushner is safe for now.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....

Yes and No.

bending the truth on predictions for 2018

The editorial staff at towers of ilium had a meeting about predictions made by the blog for the current year. They agreed on this: it's too soon to say.

The economy is doing better than expected. The word on the street is that their won't be a downturn until after the end of Trump's first term. Global momentum will be tempered by higher interest rates and higher oil prices, but so far there doesn't seem to be the silliness that preceded the last economic collapse.

And what about war? Those in progress will continue.

important reference-u.s. suburban development

Never mind the suburbs, here's the zoning pistols:

https://www.buildzoom.com/blog/pockets-of-dense-construction-in-a-dormant-suburban-interior

This extensive post by Issi Romen provides some good insights into the current trends of American urban land use. Although he outlines some solutions, he does not sound that optimistic. Towers of ilium agrees.

counter-reactionaries-brutalism

Heroic Brutalism has been compared to some of the architecture from the Victorian era, which was regarded as a style of excess. Contemporary preservationists are urging for a more sensitive treatment of Brutalist buildings and at least one line of argument is plausible: fashions change, tastes change, styles change--and sometimes everything comes round again. Since architecture is subject to criticism on the basis of function and durability, however, the ability to protect Brutalist monuments is more difficult.

Some very excessive buildings from the 19th century continue to be preserved and reused. Memorial Hall at Harvard is a notable example. It is an impressive pile of interpretative Gothic detailing. The plan is an overt frame of a cathedral. And like a cathedral, it serves a diverse (even for Harvard) congregation--particularly at mealtimes.

Herein lies a lesson for preservationists--the building has to work. And at some fundamental levels, Brutalist buildings did not work. The most notable Brutalist architects, working in the best spirit of experimental Modernism, sought to create unique geometric experiences that broke with millenia of building practices. A bit more reinforced concrete, a bit more height, a bit more cantilever were the ingredients of magazine worthy Brutalism.

The Victorian era, which was revolutionary, made it possible for Richardson to engage in his own experiments. His most successful projects were deeply restrained, but as Hitchcock noted, he was the last traditionalist. There are some successful knock-offs, like this:

But, the decorated splendor of the 19th century would give way to an age of glass and steel. Brutalism, ultimately, was a dead end. Good for photographers.

where the hell did the news go

Now that the blood has been cleaned up there's not much interest in the general media about the Florida pedestrian bridge collapse. There are some possible lessons from this absence of follow-up, and more importantly about the challenges associated with designing and building anything, anywhere, for any purpose.

-Complexity kills. Changes to complex things are necessary, but should be approached with caution

-Redundancy should not be forsaken for an assumption that better computers can solve all problems

-It takes more time than anyone appreciates

-Nothing will ever be perfect

the age of abandonment

The often overlooked ingredient of successful preservation of historic architecture is neglect. The fewer cycles of repair and replacement undertaken by the owners of a building the more authentic it is.

This house is a bit past its prime, but it is a good window into the past. Although its probable that only the chimney is original, the significant age of the windows, trim, and siding speaks to owners who respected history.

the age of loopholes

This double curved entry roof is an exceptional detail on an otherwise unexceptional house. Towers of ilium doubts that it is original. But, so what?

The recent fire at the Trump Tower in New York reveals something important about the evolution of building codes. At the time of its construction--1979--Fire Code regulations were fairly well advanced. However, residential occupancies in high rises were considered low risk, especially when compared to more public spaces like theaters and hospitals. Additionally, fire safety was still focused on the general robustness of the building structure, which was applied to skyscrapers regardless of use. We can imagine a young Donald Trump saying "Why the hell do we need to waste money on sprinklers?!" More significantly, if his design team was doing its job they would never have suggested that the client spend money on something that was not mandated by code.

So, we have one person dead, but the building is still standing. It is doubtful that the building owner will disrupt tenants and bring the sprinkler system in line with current code or best practices. 

grim tidings for giants

Aside from this picture of a slab of marble, this post will be devoid of architectural content. 

Some folks in large media outlets are starting to compare Facebook to MySpace. That Zuckerberg should eventually pass into history as an unknown is almost guaranteed. Let's hope he endows a professorship here and there--maybe a building at Harvard. If this blog survives ten more years, it may outlast at least one of the following:

-Facebook

-Twitter

-Snapchat

-Tesla

-Apple

-Yahoo

-Cambridge Analytica (a cheap shot, yes)

-Trump

-Verizon

That Google and Amazon are not on this list is a serious mistake. One or both them could be just as doomed.

a room full of dead men

At the center is Royal Barry Wills. To his right, his son Richard. Two other men are probably Robert Minot and Merton Barrows. The location of the office is uncertain, but it is not 8 Newbury Street.

Over 5000 houses were designed by these men. Their contribution to the landscape of New England is profound. The impact that Royal Barry Wills had on a generation of architects and builder is not something that can be easily measured, but his success was impressive. His legacy, at this point, is uncertain. As representatives of the Colonial Revival style their place in history is secure, but it is hard to reconcile their approach to architecture with current movements in residential design. Time is hard on architecture.

false nostalgia and architecture

The most effective designs explicitly reference historical events or imagery that current users have no experience with. This doesn't make such references any less effective. In fact, by creating a link to long ago events the architecture gains a degree of significance that transcends the fussiness of authenticity. A particularly effective technique is to create an atmosphere where the user can pretend that they belonged to some bygone era--whether  decades gone by or millenia. The Greek temple is a very useful nostalgic device. Even playing old songs in a restaurant can make patrons feel that they're part of a cultural experience that warrants another glass of wine and that rich dessert.

Subtle gestures can be layered with forms and details that have no clear relationship. The more time periods are referenced, the broader the reach to the audience.

uber, opioids, and architecture

There is actually no significant connection between these three things. Architects would like to believe that modern taxi service and self-driving cars will ignite some sort of design revolution, but that is pure fantasy. The opioid crisis is loosely connected to design issues by virtue of its broad reach. Heroin dealers took advantage of a robust transportation network to expand their addict base. More precisely, their addict base had been delivered to them on a silver platter by the machinations of drug companies.

stolen goods

This graph from Calculated Risk shows the construction volume of multi-family housing in the U.S. for the past 50 years. Towers of ilium finds a few things interesting:

-The boom years of multi-family construction coincided with the boom years of single family construction. This pattern was solid until the late 90's through the housing crash of 2008. The rebound following the crash actually outpaced single family starts.

-The recent peak--and what could be a mild decline--points to recession territory. Why the decline? Slack demand or onerous development costs?

truth is a gesture

The collapse of a newly installed pedestrian bridge today in Florida will be investigated with brutal thoroughness. As is often the case, errors only get analyzed fully when they cause loss of life. The recent flooding in Massachusetts has resulted in many insurance claims but probably very little comprehensive action. Futuring is hard work, and only undertaken with reluctance. It's still easier to run.

realist architecture #58-new haven edition

No one really wants to go to New Haven, Connecticut. Granted, Yale University still maintains a campus in the city, but only as a fortified compound in the middle of a post industrial apocalypse. Ikea has a store near the highway, but there's no guarantee that they will survive the collapse of retail. Eventually, the only monument left will be the remains of this interesting creation by Marcel Breuer. 

This building will be an important test for preservationists. If it has no functional value it will continue to deteriorate and be the subject of condemnation. If the highway didn't cut off the site from the water there might be some hope, but odds are good that the next tenants will be a demolition crew.

real architecture #57

What exactly is "loft living?" The romantic ideal is a struggling artist who rents space in a crumbling factory building in the blasted wasteland of a formerly teeming metropolis. This artist builds a loft out of salvaged lumber with borrowed tools so that he has a retreat from his artistic space. His career takes off and his dwelling becomes the setting of wild parties with cocaine and LSD and the loft becomes the spot for excessive sexual experimentation. Eventually, the city recovers, the neighborhood gentrifies and the building is sold and converted to luxury "lofts" for wealthy hipsters. Everybody wins.

This is a picture of an attic--not a loft.

the crabgrass paradise

Towers of ilium would like to apologize for the sporadic posting. The company has been restructuring; non-essential positions have been eliminated, executives have been rewarded, and consultants have been hired who will shortly unveil a new branding campaign. 

Meanwhile, the American suburb persists. One of Jackson's more interesting observations deals with the value that Americans place on newness in comparison to some old-world cultures. He claims that in Europe, age confers value to buildings, and the inverse is the norm in the United States.

Anyone who views greater density as the solution to racism, energy use, a loss of community, and transportation inefficiency is facing an uphill battle. The people of the town of Brookline--one of the first class segregated suburbs--do not want anything changed. Even people in older suburbs on the outskirts of dying cities do not want anything changed. Both groups vote.

drum rolls

Towers of ilium has mixed feelings about construction in flood-prone areas. Towers of ilium has mixed feelings about its predictions of a stable economy through 2018. The potential trade war, the impact of chaos in Washington, the overheated stock market, and general inertia are all significant.

There will be another recession. Probably within two years. Trump and the Republican Party should pray for an early recession and a quick recovery. Odds are against this.

greystone chapels

Deficient public space is a great American tradition. Occasionally, grand gestures are undertaken because of the influence of some politician, but the grandeur is concentrated on lobbies, entry halls, and marble staircases. The constant deficiency is in the support spaces--narrow endless hallways, bad light, bad air, and never enough room for people who have to conduct business in them.

the death of american cities

American cities started to die at the end of the 19th century. Boston is noteworthy because its death (or for those who prefer gentler language: stasis) was largely complete by 1874 when it failed to annex Brookline. The death that we refer to here is not the death of the metropolitan region--for those have continued to grow robustly with population in all parts of the country. The mortality is associated with the  concept  of the city as an imperial system that could manage ALL aspects of its economic and political sphere of influence. Although regional planning can be prone to romanticism, corruption, and stupidity the alternative state that exists in many metropolitan areas is a dismal anarchy. The city of Boston has no authority over much of its critical infrastructure. Transportation systems in particular are administered at the state level, which results in a bureaucracy with less focus than a group of drunken monkeys at an orgy.

SB 827

Jackson finally used the term sprawl--in the context of describing the suburbs of southern California. How appropriate then, that there is much discussion of Senate Bill 827. This proposed bill would scrap nearly all zoning regulations for property near public transit stops. The details are still being hammered out, but towers of ilium predicts that this bill will not pass. Even if it does pass, the effects will take decades to be realized. In that time, thousands of more single-family homes will be built in peripheral locations and traffic congestion will get worse. Except, some of the congestion will be passengerless self-driving cars.

what a time it was

The research staff at towers of ilium has been consumed by a book about the development of the American suburbs. Crabgrass Frontier by Kenneth Jackson is the Ur text when it comes to describing the forces behind residential development in the U.S.

What makes his writing so impressive is that he sets out a definition of "suburb" that is more comprehensive than most architectural critics. His criteria for a suburb are as follows:
-Function: predominantly residential
-Form: owner occupied single family dwellings
-Income: middle and upper class
-Density: lower relative to historical urban settlement

So far, he has not used the term "sprawl."

More on this as reading advances.

isaac newton holds short position

Towers of ilium wisely made no predictions for 2018 about the direction of the stock market. Towers of ilium is beginning to think about tempering its position on the stability of the economy through the course of the year. Odds of a downturn have ticked up a bit. More political mishaps will worsen the situation.

home is where you find it

The difference between formal and casual has essentially disappeared in American home design. A more accurate way of describing the different areas inside a dwelling is needed. Towers of Ilium proposes the terms "Open Spaces" and "Retreat Spaces." There is a subtle distinction between these terms and  the more common phrases "Public" and "Private." An Open Space can serve as a zone that encourages gathering, but it can also be a barrier where business is conducted. A front porch is one example, a kitchen island another. Retreat Spaces can be any room with a door--and the backyard--provided some level of separation can be created.

the deep state

Floodplain development is a typical feature of human settlement patterns. The problem with floodplains is that they flood--but usually not with enough frequency to encourage total abandonment. Climate change is upending certain expectations, but the effects are subtle and slow-moving. One day, Miami will be like Venice, and people will love to go there. The in between period will be hardest to cope with.

not fiction

Almost any person from ten years ago with knowledge of oil production would not have believed the shape of this graph. The surge of tight oil extraction is important for many reasons, but it does not invalidate the general idea of peak oil. Eventually, petroleum will be competing aggressively with energy sources that have no limitations on production--i.e. solar.  Extraction technologies always face harder limits than manufacturing technologies.

now and maybe

the end endgame

The Economist magazine had a good report on the proliferation of discount chain stores like Dollar General. For better or worse, this retail model may be the final model of the American shopping experience. The very wealthy will have a few boutique locations, and Amazon. The middle class will have Amazon. The poor will have Dollar General, and Amazon. Even Wal-Mart will throw in the towel. If things reach that point the Dollar Stores will even be able to get rid of their signs.

ducks vs. decorated sheds

Towers of ilium invents facts. That preceding statement reveals, in large part, the efforts of this news organization to deceive the public--our success is legend.

The "duck" and "decorated shed" terminology that was invented by Venturi and Scott-Brown can be useful, but it leads to false dichotomies. Many buildings are partly duck and partly shed. The high-rise pictured above, like most high-rises, is very shed-like. The top of the building features a collection of wind turbines that will pay for themselves in 600 years. As signage goes, they are confusing--even though there is (for now) a Tesla car showroom on the ground floor.

Obvious symbolism is in the eye of a beholder. Scale is the most successful demonstration of importance.

photo credit: Peter Gruhn

amazon headquarters #30298

Towers of ilium is doubling down on its position that Amazon will not build a new headquarters in the Boston region. Despite the fact that Boston has made the final 20 list, the most rational locations for the new complex include the following regions:

-New Jersey
-North Carolina
-Atlanta
-Pittsburgh

A southern state is still the smartest move for the company. Actually, the smartest move is not building another centralized headquarters, but Bezos will only reach this conclusion during the next recession.

where to put louis kahn?

Efforts to categorize architectural styles always go off course when it comes to Louis Kahn. He managed to keep one foot in the world of classical formalism and the other in the slippery territory of high modernism. He was not know for the use of glass, but is regarded as a master of light. His lack of commercial success only enhanced his legacy and he managed to inspire hordes of post-modern designers. The word most frequently used to describe even his smallest projects is "monumental"--and for this reason he remains a threat.

who won? modernism or post-modernism?

If we want to consider this question objectively then we should admit that Colonial Revival architecture has always been the winner. After all, towers of ilium owns significant stock in companies that make vinyl siding. In the realm of commercial architecture the answer is less clear. Modernism won the battle for the high rise, but Post-Modernism appears to be winning the battle for the low-rise strip. This outcome makes sense from a business perspective. At street level--or car windshield level--the rudimentary details of post modernism draw the eye more effectively. For anything over 6 stories high the world still belongs to Mies.

this is everywhere

In between storms and recessions there is paradise. The beach, the boardwalk, the road, the burger joint, and the hotel. To get there is a traffic choked road that creeps through the low rent areas that can smell the water but never see it. The people will always come because they do not have salt water in the heartland, or in winter, or because their beach is not exciting or exotic enough. The sand drying on feet and the sunburn headache on the way home on the interstate is the best part.

a victim of success

The main problem with the Salavador Dali museum in Florida is that too many people like to go there. Consequently, spaces that were designed for a few dozen people now have to accommodate nearly a hundred. The stress is felt acutely in critical circulation areas--especially the stair atrium and the main gallery.

The lesson here is that architects and building owners are doomed by an inability to predict both popularity and indifference. Bring on the wrecking balls.

rumblings

Although the news cycle has shifted a bit in the past few days, towers of ilium noticed that the Treasury Dept and IRS are rushing to implement the tax code changes. We sense trouble ahead, and a political opportunity for some candidates--and a bonanza for some tax lawyers. The chief problem is that employee withholding may be a bit muddled in the months or year ahead. People who expect a tax break, may not see much of a change in their paycheck because of errors or deliberate criminal mischief. Who will they blame?

phillip johnson super genius architect man

Phillip Johnson was a great architect by virtue of his ability to design mediocre buildings. William Rawn just completed a makeover of Boston Public Library, and now New York gets to have something similar done to the former Sony headquarters building. 

Rock on.

an unworkable idea

Clients spend money on architects draw pictures and select products. Clients spend money on contractors who organize the labor and materials that create buildings based on the decisions of the architects. Efforts at finding more efficiency in these arrangements has attracted the attention of economists and business leaders for quite some time. One obstacle to efficiency is that both architects and contractors will claim to have a grasp of the complexity involved in the undertaking, no matter how original it may be. Both groups are beholden to a labor and material market over which they have no control. One possible approach would be for a contractor to establish a true design-build operation where design services are combined with in-house trades who can give more accurate feedback on pricing as the design is being developed. Until this happens, the guesswork continues.

where things come from-part IIXV

If something is imitated it usually means that people like it. People in New England liked this church designed by the British architect James Gibbs. Its image came to America in the form of memories and ink prints. Consequently, pure copies were impossible to achieve, and nor was that anyone's intent. That it was copied imperfectly was a testament to the wide variety of skills and desires of the worshipful people of a rough, new land.

That Gibbs was imitating Greek temples, Roman palazzos, and medieval cathedrals is all part of the mix. Imitation and agglomeration are lifeblood of design. Until modernism, perhaps.

reckonings-the blizzard of 2018

Marty Walsh and Charlie Baker do not have their heads buried in a snowbank. Both expect coastal flooding to increase in the decades ahead and have a dramatic impact on land use patterns and emergency planning. They acknowledge the cause as global warming, combined with centuries of development  in high-risk areas. Resilient design has been adopted in the coastal regions of Massachusetts sporadically over the past several decades. Commercial property owners tend to take things more seriously than homeowners. In some respects, this is a function of the need to satisfy private insurers and public officials, but the ultimate effect is to encourage a growth pattern that will favor large buildings replacing small buildings in coastal areas. We'll see how this plays out over the next 82 years.

disaster artists

Famous architects from New England:

Frank Lloyd Wright--by virtue of having spent part of his childhood in Weymouth.
H.H. Richardson
Olmsted
Ralph Cram
Maya Lin--by virtue of having gone to Yale
Gropius
etc...

The sales pitch of this list is that some important designers have passed through New England. Their most important work was often realized elsewhere. This region is not the most fertile ground for the avante garde or the very large. A provincialism stalks the streets, and people learn to temper their expectations. No towers to the sky get past local zoning boards.

predictions for 2018

Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....