ruminations about architecture and design

Monday, January 1, 2018

predictions for 2018

Please note that predictions for the Trump administration will be dealt with separately. Some of these predictions for 2018 will be impacted by Trump, but most of them are far beyond even his control.
These predictions are more conservative than in past years. The only excitement will be the conclusion of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections.

-The retail apocalypse will be more significant in 2018, but it will not lead to a general economic downturn. The repurposing of retail properties will be a more notable phenomenon.

-The "internet of things" will continue to be a buzzword but towers of ilium does not see much in the way of real technological revolution in the years ahead. Apple's star will start to fall as the ghost of Steve Jobs fades away into the long, curved hallways of their new headquarters in Silicon Valley.

-Renewable energy will continue to make real gains.

-War between the U.S. and  North Korea will not break out. China may take a more aggressive role in this.

-Housing starts will be at a slightly below average pace.

-The U.S. economy will do okay for most of the year. Okay means around 2% growth. Everyone will be happy.

-Someone may trim the feathers of bin Salman--this will be the outcome of another year of turbulence in the Middle East--exacerbated by America's inept diplomacy.

-Europe, except for Britain will be mostly stable. The hard right movement in Poland and Hungary will gain traction. Putin will be conservative in his posturing.

-China will be more active in its region--capitalizing on American ineptitude.

-China will be continue to be the hot spot for avante garde architecture.

-On average, things in Africa will improve.

-Mueller's investigation will not result in charges against Trump, but Kushner may be shown the door and a seat in a courtroom.

-The Democrats will clean up at the mid-term elections. They will win the House--with Pelosi back as Speaker, and the Senate, with Schumer as Leader. Then the axes will start to fall....

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