Towers of Ilium is not afraid to make predictions. The track record for success is limited, but this blog is not discouraged by failure, truth, or facts.
I predict that the recent fare increase by the MBTA will have no impact on ridership levels within the bus and subway/trolley system. Commuter rail usage will probably decline, but that's small stuff compared to the hundreds of thousands of trips provided by the Red Line. I make this claim for a few reasons:
1. The cost of using public transit is still less than using a car if the destination is anywhere within a dense, urban area.
2. Many users are habitual riders, and don't have the desire to change their commuting patterns--or can't.
3. Conditions in the metro-Boston economy determine usage rates to a greater degree than fare costs. Right now, economic conditions are slowly improving, ergo people will use subways and buses.
4. Gas will stay above $3 for quite a while (barring a complete European led depression exacerbated by a collapse of the Chinese economy).
We'll see how this prediction plays out.
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