ruminations about architecture and design

Monday, December 28, 2015

2015 predictions revisited

Towers of ilium can't hide from the truth on the internet. We made predictions for 2015 and now it's time to come clean on them.

1. Nothing interesting will happen in Massachusetts this year. By this, we mean no extraordinary political scandals, no upheavals in the business community, and no spectacular crimes. (Yes, we realize that this prediction is a set-up for something strange to happen)

-Partly true, but.... The MBTA had a troubled year, with the breakdown during the month of February being the important thing. Potential delays of the Green Line expansion are noteworthy. And, the Ghost Train.

2. The U.S. economy will start to show signs of weakness by the end of the year. We'll have a few quarters of boom, but then a Fed interest rate hike and a reversal in the decline of energy costs will expose the structural problems. I'm not predicting full-blown recession; instead a slowdown that will eventually turn negative during the election year.

-Mostly wrong. The Fed rate hike didn't happen till December. Energy costs continued to decline. A slowdown could still occur next year.

3. Neither Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush will do anything dramatic this year. They may officially declare an intent to run, but in general, they'll keep a low profile and avoid controversy.

-Half true. Hillary seems to be cruising along. Jeb collapsed nearly completely.

4. Architecture will continue to be conservative worldwide. LEED will diminish in importance.

Wrong and wrong.

5. The world economy will maintain a relative stability. Things will deteriorate in Russia.

Sort of right. Russia seems to have stabilized.

6. U.S./Cuba relations will improve significantly throughout the year. Specifically, Obama's recent action will gain traction and not be reversed.


7. Something funny will happen in the courts with regard to Obamacare.

Not true. Yet. The program seems stable, but evolving.

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