The Fed guides the economy. The very existence of this proposition tends to reinforce and inflate the power of the Fed. Many progressive economists maintain that the Fed kept monetary policy too tight for the past 9 years; that efforts should have been made to create a negative rate of return to stimulate the economy. Others bray loudly that the Fed debased the currency and that hyperinflation is just around the corner.
This blog maintains that an economic downturn will start to present in the later months of this year. The collapse of traditional retail (Sears, Radio Shack, Shopping Malls) will exert the major source of drag. Trump will attempt tax reform and fail. Immigration policies will negatively impact tourism and technology companies. The infrastructure boom that has been promised will fail due to the intractability of fiscal idiots in Congress. A war would put the nail in the coffin.