ruminations about architecture and design

Thursday, November 25, 2010

predicting the future

Nassim Taleb, economist and author of The Black Swan has ventured to make some predictions about the future in a short article in the Economist. The link is here: Can't make the URL stick, so you'll have to take my word for it.

I only agree with one of his predictions--which is that many things we are using now will still be in use. He is probably wrong about all the other things. The world in 2036 or 2020 or 2061 will be different from this world in ways that we cannot imagine or predict. That is the way the future works (or happens, because the future does not work or take vacations or respond to plans). Architecture will contine to suffer from its typical obsession with "new" stuff that looks shiny, but the majority of architectural design will (still) be in renovations and retrofits. I hope that I'm still working in the profession, but I don't want to make any predictions about the future today because I don't feel like making a fool of myself. Maybe tomorrow I'll make some predictions.

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