ruminations about architecture and design

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

mcbride is probably going to be right

It has been noted in the media that single family starts have been depressed and that most improvements in homebuilding have come from multi-family construction. Bill McBride of Calculated Risk predicts that the multi-family market will start moving sideways, i.e; back to the trend level of 300,000 units a year. He also predicts that single family starts will continue to grow as we climb out of this long depression. Housing market demand is still regional but I think the hard winter slowed down lots of projects everywhere. The population of the U.S. keeps growing, and eventually, the overstock will be occupied (either bought or rented).

The next real estate/finance crisis will dovetail with the next energy crunch. I'm guessing around 2018, when people realize that the shale fuel boom was a bust. Maybe 2019. But then, ripeness is all.

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