ruminations about architecture and design

Thursday, January 19, 2012

the chinese real estate bubble

Some economists, primarily in the West, have been hinting at this for a few years now. Some of these hints are now being replaced by solid research, and I do not see how this issue is going to be resolved in a painless fashion. The Chinese construction boom has been one of the things that has sustained growth in that country for nearly a decade. The recent Olympics showcased their ability to build large, impressive looking architecture very quickly (with varying degrees of quality).

A good indicator of a bubble is relentless speculation, that is explained, by those participating, as a self-sustaining phenomenon. But, like a game of muscial chairs, the music has to stop. I predict that things will start to go badly this year and the negative effects will be felt worldwide.

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