ruminations about architecture and design

Monday, December 23, 2013

2013 predictions revisited

Okay, here's what I said about a year ago:

1. The American economy will muddle along, despite any idiocy in Washington, Europe, or Asia. The Massachusetts economy will do slightly better than expected (this is a high risk prediction...I may eat crow by the end of the year, or sooner).

2. Things will get worse in Egypt, Syria, and Israel. Worse how? does it matter? worse always for ordinary people.

3. Things will get worse in some parts of Europe--Spain, Greece, Italy, Britain.

4. Energy prices will increase slightly, but not enough to really impact economic growth trends. The shale gas and oil boom will fade a bit. I should insulate my attic.

5. No meaningful action will occur on gun control.

6. Architecture will get more conservative. We've entered an age of maturity and relative sobriety in design. No major revolutions in building technology will occur. The "wired" (or wireless) building will not gain traction. If we're smart, energy efficiency performance of enclosures will improve, at least in the U.S. We might start to catch up to Europe.

And, my analysis:

#1. Mostly right. Massachusetts isn't is doing as well as it should be doing. So it goes.

#2. Mostly right.

#3. Mostly wrong. Things are still flatlined, but not that worse from what I've been reading.

#4. Mostly wrong.  Energy costs are flat. I got my attic insulated, but I won't know the effects until the end of the heating season.

#5. That was an easy one. If anything, we've slid backwards.

#6. Too soon to tell.

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