ruminations about architecture and design

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

prediction dept. #66308308

Gail Tverberg referenced this chart in a recent article on OilPrice.com. There has been some talk in the popular press about the possibility of energy independence and of the U.S. becoming a net energy exporter. That is pure bullshit. The EIA came under fire from energy experts when it published projections that showed a surge in oil and natural gas production. I regard the steepness of that surge implied by the graph above to be a hilariously idiotic speculation. What I will be interested to see, however, is if the share of renewables beats expectations and predictions. If we are able to move our share of energy resources from wind and solar to 15% in the next several decades I think that would be a good thing. Nuclear could also see a mild comeback, but I'm not holding my breath on that one. I think institutional investors would prefer a windmill to a reactor any day of the week.

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