Monday, January 30, 2017
act II preview
The political analysis team at towers of ilium is a bit more disorganized than usual. The actions of the Trump administration have generated controversy and protest, and they are far from complete. The greater impact on international affairs will play out over the next few months. The relationships with China and Russia will require particular observation. But, for now we can speculate on how aggressively Trump will prosecute the Global War on Terror and if he will seek to expand the battlefield. The status quo established by Obama--drone strikes, proxy armies, Special Forces--may not be enough for Trump and Bannon. Where the hammer blows fall, or could fall:
-Iran: An obvious choice for those neocons who saw it as the next battlefield after a swift and successful victory in Iraq. But, they are an organized state with geographic advantages.
-Syria: Ground intervention will be measured according to Putin's willingness to tolerate an "ally" in his theater of operations
-Yemen: Already there
-Iraq: Already there and more on the way. The battle for western Mosul will be a proving ground of sorts.
-Afghanistan: Already there, but bogged down. An attempt to confront the Taliban again may draw the ire of Pakistan.
-Northern Africa: Ripe with possibility--vengeance in Bengahzi?
-Latin America: An intervention in Venezuela, perhaps? Cuba?--Familiar territory in many respects.