ruminations about architecture and design

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

predictions for the trump administration

The election year and its outcome can be given the title: "Twilight of Idols." The high climbing chariot of Donald Trump has created a spectacle beyond the limits of imagination. If towers of ilium lacked courage we would make no attempt at predictions on his behalf, but we have equal measures of courage and mania.

Before predicting his actions and and impacts it bears outlining the basic facts about his personality and legacy so far:

-He likes to build things and he is not afraid about borrowing money to do that.
-He did most of his building in an earlier era. Recent projects have involved leveraging and franchising his brand.
-He relies on his family and close personal connections to manage projects.
-He has been a creature of New York and Florida his entire life.
-He makes no distinction between style and substance. He is keen at exploiting weakness in others.

1. Immigration will be curtailed under his administration. Prosecution and deportation of undocumented people in the country will continue the pace set by Obama.

2. Trade policies will have a negative impact on imports first, and consistent with economic principles, will have a negative impact on exports.

3. Trump's relationship with Putin will turn sour. The relationship with China will grow more sour.
Curiously, China may reach out to the international community with more vigor, seeking to establish a stronger position.

4. U.S. and world  military spending will increase, including the development of new nuclear weapons--again, a continuation of the Bush & Obama policies. However, foreign adventurism will decline, particularly in the Middle East--most likely concentrated on the defeat of ISIL.

5. There will be a terrorist attack on U.S. soil. The event will be smaller than 9-11, but the reaction and aftermath will be nearly as bad.

6. The Democrats will not mount an effective opposition to Republicans in Washington D.C., but state level operations will gain more traction, most notably in California, the Northeast, and the Southwest. Legal challenges to Trump will be significant on all fronts.

7. The U.S. will enter a recession in 2018.

8.  At least half of Trump's cabinet will resign or be fired within two years.

9. He will be a one-term president. (This does not contradict prediction #6)

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