ruminations about architecture and design

Friday, December 26, 2014

2014 predictions revisited

Okay, time to beat up towers of ilium....

This is what I said in January of this year:

1. The Architecture/Engineering/Construction industry will have an okay year. Things in China might start to slow down a bit--or get more sophisticated. African nations (the peaceful ones) may lead in percentage growth. In the coming decades that continent might become the "place" for new architecture and engineering.

Score: Mostly correct. AEC is doing quite well in the Boston region. 

2. The composition of Congress will not change dramatically in the 2014 midterm elections. I'm going to end up stepping in this one somehow.

Score: Stepped in it. Ouch.

3. Mayor Walsh will reveal that he is just as pro-development as Menino was.

Score: Still playing out. Probably correct. He has signaled a desire for more housing.

4. However, growth in Boston suburbs will continue to be restrained by the usual bevy of regulations and poor population growth.

Score: Correct, because it's not much of a prediction. I'm also not bothering to check any facts.

5. The health care cost curve will bend a bit more.

Score: Maybe correct. ACA has traction, but Congress and Supreme Court could erode it.

6. Unrest and repression will continue at the same rates as in 2013. A long, horrible stalemate in Syria, Egypt, Israel, Palestine. Possible liberalization in Qatar and Saudi Arabia will be offset by crackdowns in Russia and North Korea.

Score: Situation in Ukraine is bad, but I didn't predict that. I didn't predict Hong Kong uprising, which seems to have ended peacefully. Didn't predict Feguson.

7. NSA activity will continue unabated in the U.S. Restrictions on media content, patents, copyrights, etc.. will be maintained. Spurious blogs like this one will be ignored.

Score: Yeah, so what. 

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