gone such a short time

Humans seem to process time in short intervals--life or death decisions are made in split seconds, we say stupid things without considering the consequences, we get impatient when things are late by a few minutes. Some blame the internet, but we created the products of linked computers to conform to our way of perceiving the world.

Architecture is offered as a flawed antidote to the super fast. The "build for all time" motto is carved on the ruins of the Egyptian empire. The value of the built environment can reasonably be measured in decades, occasionally centuries, and in rare circumstances, milenia. In light of this, making fast decisions in design should be treated with caution. A design decision that is not reviewed at least three times often turns out wrong. But, we cannot escape our nature, and decisions that are made instantly and arbitrarily often define the course of work. If these quick moves weren't made then nothing would ever get built.

This building no longer exists. It's removal was the result of much deliberation.

Predictions for 2017

The only way to make mistakes is by doing things, so here goes:


-The world economy will muddle along for most of the year. As potential impacts from Trump start to percolate through markets there will be signs of disruption towards the end of the year. China may have some minor crises, but will be managed. Russia will be stagnant. Europe will improve. Developing countries will improve slightly. Major drama will be reserved for 2018 (to be discussed in the towers of ilium Trump Predictions special edition)

-U.S. economy will start strong and then weaken as the year progresses.

-Oil prices will be volatile and end the year above $65 a barrel.

-Renewable energy will continue to grow globally, but will suffer setbacks in the U.S.

-U.S. housing starts will surge, but will be tempered by rising interest rates

-Fed will hike rates 3 times in 2017

-ISIL will lose Mosul, and Raqqa will be besieged but not fall.

-Middle East turmoil will be variable. Saudi Arabia will pull back some on its military adventures in Yemen and will seek more diplomacy with Iran. Bibi will continue to isolate Israel. Sisi will get weaker in Egypt.

-Boston real estate will continue to cool. Prices will not soften.

-Architecture will continue to improve sustainable design practices. There will be more conservative buildings coming online and on the boards.

-Nothing dramatic will happen at the MBTA.

2017 will be less exciting than 2016 (long drumroll on that one please.....)

paper tiger architecture

The efforts of the Boston Olympics organization were regarded with gentle skepticism by towers of ilium. That it was doomed was never in doubt. It failed to spark a serious dialogue about the state of Boston infrastructure. Perhaps we are all united by the hopelessness of the situation.

pre-planning the prediction market

2016 was a bad year for polling and the conventional wisdom. 2017 may be even worse. The prediction staff at towers of ilium has been doing more research than usual on what may happen in the year ahead. Topics worthy of predictions include the following:

-U.S. economy
-Energy prices
-Armed conflicts-ongoing
-Armed conflicts-potential
-Terrorism
-Architectural trends
-Real Estate trends-local
-Real Estate trends-national/international
-Transportation
-Donald Trump's presidency

This last topic will get special treatment because it requires a multi-year window of possible effects.

a sketch about economists (up there)

The Economist also had a very good article on their own headquarters building-which they are in the process of vacating after many years. Towers of ilium can only comment on a few items:

-Peter and Allison Smithson are given credit for inventing the Brutalist style with these structures.

-The author of the article has experience working in the building and was generally pleased with the design--except for the Plaza--modernist plazas are usually shit.

-Office towers pose considerable challenges for communication between groups. This can be a boon for some companies, but not for journalists.

many happy returns

The last time towers of ilium commented on Celebration, Florida, it was dismissive. A recent article in The Economist magazine on the community was thoughtful and frequently critical. This blog continues to remain dismissive. The town--if it can be called that--is simply another  upscale suburb located between a swamp and a highway. Some of its planning features still feel dumb, in particular the way garages empty onto back roads between house lots.

Giving credit to Celebration for serving as a building block of the New Urbanist movement is a bit of a stretch. New Urbanism is a sham; a marketing slogan that developers can paste onto projects in the hope of gaining sympathy votes for some common sense design features. Celebration is derivative and unoriginal when compared to the slightly more revolutionary status of Seaside. As an intellectual experiment it barely qualifies as a footnote to Venturi & Scott-Brown.

2016 predictions post-mortem

The spin department at towers of ilium has been burning the midnight oil for this one.

- Hillary Clinton will be elected president (defeating Ted Cruz). GOP will retain  control of Congress by a more narrow margin.

Annnnnnd.....that's not how it turned out for the first one. Cruz slithered nearly to the end of the primary. Whether his political career will survive and expand is a question that we don't have the luxury or the interest in discussing. Hillary gave it a college try, but this issue has been beaten to death quite thoroughly. The second part of this prediction turned out mostly right. 

-Economy will start to sputter in early/late fall. Fed will hike interest rates 3 times this year.

Nope and nope. One interest rate hike only in December.

-Oil will end the year with an average price of above $50 a barrel for WTI.

Right, but not by much. About $53 as of this writing. Gas for two bucks a gallon is our constitutional right--heh, heh.

-Syrian civil war will stabilize, but not permanently.

If by stable we mean moving to a new level of hell, then yes. Assad and Russia have secured Aleppo and things are bad. 

-ISIL will continue to experience setbacks, but will not be defeated outright.

Yes, but the franchise and ideology is strong.

-Marijuana acceptance will continue to gain traction in U.S.

And, that's a heck yeah. Massachusetts, Florida, etc....all in the gunsights of Mr. Sessions.

-MBTA will putter along. Baker will not be able to make any major changes. The Green Line extension plan will be delayed but not abandoned.

Mostly true, but efforts to secure more Red Line cars are impressive. Baker's team nibbles at the edges of things, securing some union concessions, but no real money for the system.

-Nothing dramatic will happen in Quincy, Mass.

Almost too easy. Downtown development is moving ahead and traffic gets marginally worse each week. All signs of prosperity and joy.

-Housing starts nationally will start to decline towards the end of the year.

Nope. Decent gains, but we see headwinds ahead.

-Europe will lurch more towards the right.

Yes, yes it did.

stripitecture

Until we get funding for more research, we'll blame it on Renzo Piano. The phenomenon can loosely be called "stripitecture" and it involves wrapping buildings in an expressive fretwork of materials in dominant linear patterns. The method lends a richness to the facade of the structure and creates ambiguity about where walls start. A clever architect can make a series of arguments about how the cladding mediates sun/wind/rain, etc..

It looks expensive, and it is. But so what?

a garden runs through it

According to most sources, the agricultural revolution is in its twilight. The next frontier is food storage and distribution. The United States has been dealing with this challenge by growing and processing billions of tons of carbohydrates that can be kept shelf stable for eons. Meat and vegetables, which many people would prefer to eat fresh (or properly aged) present greater logistical problems. Should it be treated from the demand side or the supply side?

the way it is

Urban planning in the United States does not exist. In its place we have the consequential effects of the need to provide space for roads, cars, and buildings. For an object as simple as a single family home the formula is simple: 5000 s.f. for the building lot, of which  2000 s.f. is house footprint, 600 s.f. is driveway, and the balance is front, rear, and side yards.

For commercial buildings, the formula varies more, but a reasonable starting point is to assume that for every square foot of building at least an equal amount will be required for site---and that's at the low end. For strip development, a 1:3 ratio is a safer starting point.

These observations are the work of towers of ilium, and do not constitute an official or reliable analysis.

failures of imagination

"Make no little plans" might be one of those statements that old-school designers frequently seize on when they're trying to work the crowd when proposing a large scale project. America in the 21st century, which may or may not achieve some historical level of "greatness," has to find a new organizing slogan. Towers of Ilium is prepared to suggest a few;

"Make no large plans, for they will only attract the ire of lawyers, special interest groups, and idiots."
This can be the rallying cry for any major changes to urban areas.

"Make no practical plans." This applies mainly to architects. The 2030 challenge is an example of this
hubristic thinking. Net zero buildings are achievable in limited circumstances, but only a handful of clients are enlightened or funded enough to consider as a primary goal.

"Make no plans." Most people live by this principle and are better off for it. We believe that we can plan for life, but are often swept away by tidal forces that defy all human control or understanding.

transportation costs in perspective

According to a recent story in the Boston Globe, the MBTA is facing criticism for granting a 285 million dollar, no-bid contract extension to China Rolling Stock for an additional 134 Red Line trains. The company currently has a contract to replace most of the Red Line cars in service for nearly 600 million dollars.

That type of money doesn't go far these days. In fact, 285 million buck will not even buy you three F-35 fighter jets. Some staff members of towers of ilium rely on the Red Line every day and would keenly appreciate a modest investment in their transportation system. If the deal goes through we should hope that the new trains are safer and more reliable than these junk airplanes.

prediction predictions

The editorial and research staff at towers of ilium has started examining the predictions made for 2016 and has also started the exhaustive and comprehensive research necessary for predictions for the upcoming year. It's a grim and humbling task.

One area of concern is the future of American healthcare. Will it continue its decline or will there be any signs for optimism? Political prognostications will be particularly fun. Optimism will obviously take a vacation, but we'll shoot from the hip on a few items.World affairs, the environment, the economy, and the Boston region will also figure large in the biased effort.

Comments are welcome, but not expected. Most will be ignored.

it happened here

Urban warfare is a puzzling thing. Every large city seems to have similar features--a central area with large buildings surrounded by smaller buildings of varying density that consist mostly of houses. Fighting in such an environment favors the defender, but attrition costs are incredible the most effective tactic is to engage in a "bleeding retreat."

Towers of ilium is curious about how warfare in an American city could be conducted from both angles. Would a spread out city like Los Angeles favor a defender more than a compact city like Boston? Perhaps it comes down to natural obstacles, in which case the Charles River would be the primary strategic impediment to both besieger  and defender.

5051

The intrepid and dedicated staff of towers of ilium has been summoned back from the long vacation.
Certain events in the past year have made us realize the dire need for another source of hard-hitting, gumshoe wielding, objective, fact-driven, brand driven, content advocated, user responsive, truth wielding, and award-winning media content. Advertisers take heed: We are responsible to no one--corporate, spiritual, or otherwise. (Except Cth'ullu and the great green gods of Yag the Accursed--but we'll cover that topic in our weekly religious broadcast)

In the weeks and months ahead we want to assure readers that we will be there for you, on the front lines or wherever.

Topics of note:

-The results of the election did come as a surprise to some staff members. Like others in the mainstream media we are doing some post-event explanation. We have little new to add to the discussion. Trump's victory does vindicate some people and some positions and we expect things to get a bit messier after the inauguration.

-Towers of ilium reaffirms the claim that the completion of the new Apple and Google headquarters complexes in California will coincide with the next depression. More on this topic later (maybe).

-The relative prosperity of the Boston region is showing signs of a downshift. We don't know what the cause is, but the boomlet in multi-family residential seems to be coinciding with some fatigue in single family construction. The multi-family situation is one tied up with permits, land costs and rising borrowing costs. We don't expect a hard crash, but possible a correction over the next few years.

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