ruminations about architecture and design

Saturday, December 24, 2016

2016 predictions post-mortem

The spin department at towers of ilium has been burning the midnight oil for this one.

- Hillary Clinton will be elected president (defeating Ted Cruz). GOP will retain  control of Congress by a more narrow margin.

Annnnnnd.....that's not how it turned out for the first one. Cruz slithered nearly to the end of the primary. Whether his political career will survive and expand is a question that we don't have the luxury or the interest in discussing. Hillary gave it a college try, but this issue has been beaten to death quite thoroughly. The second part of this prediction turned out mostly right. 

-Economy will start to sputter in early/late fall. Fed will hike interest rates 3 times this year.

Nope and nope. One interest rate hike only in December.

-Oil will end the year with an average price of above $50 a barrel for WTI.

Right, but not by much. About $53 as of this writing. Gas for two bucks a gallon is our constitutional right--heh, heh.

-Syrian civil war will stabilize, but not permanently.

If by stable we mean moving to a new level of hell, then yes. Assad and Russia have secured Aleppo and things are bad. 

-ISIL will continue to experience setbacks, but will not be defeated outright.

Yes, but the franchise and ideology is strong.

-Marijuana acceptance will continue to gain traction in U.S.

And, that's a heck yeah. Massachusetts, Florida, etc....all in the gunsights of Mr. Sessions.

-MBTA will putter along. Baker will not be able to make any major changes. The Green Line extension plan will be delayed but not abandoned.

Mostly true, but efforts to secure more Red Line cars are impressive. Baker's team nibbles at the edges of things, securing some union concessions, but no real money for the system.

-Nothing dramatic will happen in Quincy, Mass.

Almost too easy. Downtown development is moving ahead and traffic gets marginally worse each week. All signs of prosperity and joy.

-Housing starts nationally will start to decline towards the end of the year.

Nope. Decent gains, but we see headwinds ahead.

-Europe will lurch more towards the right.

Yes, yes it did.

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